Posted on 01/30/2012 4:55:36 PM PST by FresnoRobert
Just watch the results tomorrow night. If Romney wins by more then the votes Santorum took you could be right. If Romney wins by less votes than Santorum got Santorum supporters around here will not be looked on kindly.
Dede Scozzafaza.
And when did a House member last win a nomination, much less the Presidential election?
James Garfield — but he was also a senator-elect.
That of course is not a reason to not vote fore Newt; it’s just a reason that arguing the historical choice of a Senator is absurd.
Specter was elected U.S. Senator.
Well yes, to MSM affectionados and sheeple, but not to the tea party and true realistic conservatives.
I guess we will see tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what % of women will support him.
As a true realistic conservative it looks like you support amnesty, cap & trade, Federally mandated heath coverage and bailouts, because Newt sure did and you support him.
Me, I’m just a conservative so I opposed those things.
As a true realistic conservative it looks like you support amnesty, cap & trade, Federally mandated heath coverage and bailouts, because Newt sure did and you support him.
Me, I’m just a conservative so I opposed those things.
Why certainly you are.
What else could you be?
So? He never ran for President. The argument was made against picking a Senator to run for President, I was pointing out that at least Senators have a history of getting elected President — House members not so much.
I was replying to your previous post to me about Dede, my mistake.
Santorum endorsed Specter over Toomey and had he endorsed Toomey there’s little doubt Toomey would have been elected.
Lets see, remind me what happened with Dede, Newt wasn’t alone in backing her, the NRA did also. Not making excuses but it seems Newt’s backing her was not damaging to the conservative cause, Santorum’s was.
Santorum doesnt stand a chance...he is handing the election to Romney! get OUT Rick! go home to your child and family!
Agreed! It’s not your time Rick. Your a stand up guy, Get out and back Newt! Thanks!!!
I can see that you’re emotionally charged right now. I don’t blame you for being rattled, but you have gone around the bend.
Santorum is wasting everyones time. Mr. 12% could step down now and in doing so, help us stop Romney, but like you, his fantasy is apparently more important to him.
Regardless of how tomorrow turns out, I look forward to another one of your insult packed math classes.
Before you put on your next class, perhaps you could do some figuring for me. Determine how many days Santorum was in single digits and low teens during this nomination competition so far. It wouldn’t mean much to you, but I am too stupid for the hard math problems, so I am forced to ask an expert like you.
Tell me, do you figure Mr. 12% will be up to 13 or maybe even 16% after tomorrows election? I’ll sure bet you’re excited about that.
Now, I have not once bashed Santorum. I think he is a nice guy, but not as yet presidential material. I may have referred to him as an “alter boy” once, but that is as nasty-dirty-horrible as I have gotten.
As for Bachmann, I supported her for a heck of a long time, then a couple weeks into the campaign, she went stupid and lost me.
I liked Perry until he could hardly remember his name under pressure, but then as time went on, he made me like him again, but by then it was way too late for him.
I kinda liked Cain, but his supporters made me sick. Then Cain started to screw up by the day, so I moved away from him.
I have looked at the pluses and minuses of each of our candidates and come to different opinions on each of them. Overall, I liked aspects of each of them and now I am focussed and committed to Newt.
One last one thing. Perhaps you could add up Santorum’s numbers and add them to Newt’s, then tell me if that puts Newt at striking distance of Romney. I’d do it myself but I am very bad at math.
LMAO @ you.
No, it’s not dishonest. Newt has to work extra hard to win votes because Santorum is locking up 10-15% of them. Just because you show that he CAN do it, doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be easier and more likely that he could if Santorum is out of the race. Santorum is one of several factors taking votes away from Newt that could help him win. Just because you prove the existence of other factors, doesn’t mean you disproved that Santorum IS a factor.
I simply have no idea how people could look at Newt’s lifetime record and pick one endorsement they didn’t like as the defining moment in his career. That is uber-nitpickiness. Besides, Newt was with the Tea Party from the beginning...
http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/print/4463516
Gingrich’s ties to the tea party movement are deep and long-lasting.
In March 2009, when tea parties were just beginning to be organized, the Georgian pledged to use his prodigious mailing list at American Solutions to publicize the inaugural Tax Day event.
He posted a link on every website he owned, sent emails to everyone in his database and produced a video while publicly announcing his support of the tea party movement — long before radio talkers like Glenn Beck jumped on the bandwagon.
Here's some more facts (Well actually, just polls. But it's polls that are being used to justify trying to get Santorum to quit, so I guess they are facts). Marist Poll 1/29/2012 - Santorum supporter's 2nd choice::
If Santorum were not in the competition, Romney would still be ahead of Gingrich, 49% to 33%. Santorum’s supporters divide when asked who their second choice candidate is. 36% of Santorum’s backers choose Gingrich while 35% are for Romney.Note that -- According to this poll, if Santorum was gone, Romney would almost get 50%. As bad as it will be for Romney to win Florida, it will be much better if his total votes are less than the totals for Newt and Santorum, than if Romney essentially has a majority.
Gingrich folks are encouraged by the PPP poll. Here's a PPP poll from last week, the last I can find where they asked about Santorum 2nd choices. To level-set the poll, this is the one that showed Gingrich leading 38-33%. PPP 1/23/2012 Poll -- Santorum's 2nd choice::
If Rick Santorum drops out between now and next Tuesday, Gingrich will be the beneficiary. His voters prefer Gingrich over Romney 50-23, and in a field where he's no longer a candidate Newt's lead expands to 43-36.Note that under this "good news" scenario, Santorum's exit would add 5 points to Gingrich, and 3 points to Romney. Which is only a 2-point move, not nearly enough at this point to change the results, especially given the early voting.
And here's a later PPP poll, with bad news: PPP Poll released 1/31/2011, covering 1/28-1/30):
The chart reads "down" -- the top line is the current choice, and down is where those voters go as their 2nd choice.2012 GOP Pres Primary 2nd choices 2nd choice Base Newt Ron Mitt Rick Other Gingrich 31% - 31% 52% 46% 23% Paul 11% 12% - 15% 5% 18% Romney 39% 63% 44% - 50% 37% Santorum 15% 25% 25% 33% - 7% Other 5% - - - - 15%
As you can see, if Rick drops out, 50% of his support goes to Romney, 46% to Newt. More interestingly, if Newt were to drop out, 63% of his support goes to Mitt Romney, only 25% to Santorum, and a full 12% to Ron Paul.
And in a blow for the idea of "late-breaking" support, those who currently are not sure, or support someone else, choose Romney 37% as their 2nd choice (which for undecideds, means where they are leaning).
So at the moment, the supposed "Conservative" vote is hopelessly divided. While Newt/Santorum have 42% together to 39% for Romney, the Newt and Santorum supporters are divided, and won't support the other; each support Romney more. So the best outcome at this point is for both to remain in the race.
Other surveys show the same thing. NOW, a caveat -- clearly people polled will answer with their heart, and will think about what helps their candidate. So it is possible that with Santorum gone, or with Newt gone, Some of their supporters who claim they would go to ROmney would listend to their former candidate's endorsement and move to the endorsed candidate.
But you'd have to sway a LOT of people for dropping out to make a difference, and there is no indication that people would change their opinions in a widespread fashion.
By objective measures, based on polls, Gingrich would have benefited little if at all by a Santorum withdrawal; Santorum would not have benefited if Newt dropped out; and as far as I can tell, even a Ron Paul exist would have helped Romney more than the others (although interestingly, a Ron Paul exit would help the TWO candidates together more than Romney, while a Newt or Santorum withdraw actually gave Romney more support than the other candidates combined.
In other words, at the moment, based on polling data, we are screwed. Conservatives have so divided themselves, have attacked each other's candidates so decisively and effectively, that we've driven two out, one other just quit, and the two left have hopelessly divided the remaining conservatives.
I can’t speak for others, but the reason I brought it up is that some here dismiss Santorum based on ONE ENDORSEMENT they didn’t like, so I pointed out that Gingrich also had one endorsement we didn’t like — and that endorsement was much more recent, and less explainable.
There are a lot of attacks against Santorum that are silly, but would work equally against Newt. Like yesterday someone attacked Santorum for voting for the Medicare Prescription drug program; he did, but Gingrich lobbied house members to vote for it, and was more instrumental therefore in passing it than Santorum (whose vote wasn’t needed in the Senate — in the house, it passed by a bare majority, so Newt’s switching a few votes was the difference).
Again, the argument might be silly, but it applies equally to both candidates.
I see your point about Florida. Santorum and Ron Paul both moved their campaigns elsewhere and that sent a pretty strong signal to Florida voters.
But you said “anyone.”
How about me in Missouri, where Newt Gingrich didn't get his name on the primary ballot next week and where the race will probably be over by the time of the Missouri caucuses?
My choices are Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, or one of a number of candidates whose names are still on the ballot but who are no longer running.
Unless you want me to vote for Romney or Paul, I think Santorum is my only choice.
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