Posted on 01/29/2012 7:47:34 PM PST by BCrago66
PPP's second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday's polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
bttt
From the PDF:
“Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday’s polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place.
The reason we don’t find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he’s winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He’s up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33 with Tea Partiers, and 36-29 with voters who describe themselves as ‘very conservative.’ The problem for him is that he’s not winning those groups by the same kinds of margins that he did in the Palmetto State...
Almost Romney’s entire lead in Florida is coming from moderate voters.”
The only hope is that Romney’s support is luke warm and not motivated, and that the Tea Party is ready to rock. If Newt can get within a few points of Mitt after they threw the kitchen sink at him, this will not look so bad.
wonder what the weather will be like in FL on Tuesday? Remember how awful it was in SC?
Now that I’ve posted the basic info, by 2 cents:
I don’t think self-delusion is productive, so we have to admit it’s overwhelmingly likely Romney will win in Florida. However, the margin of victory is enormously important, as a blow-out might kill Gingrich’s fund-raising ability and demoralize his supporters, effectively eliminating him from the race. But it doesn’t look like that will happen. Tuesday night, Gingrich will likely be able to point out that he beat Romeny in SC by a bigger margin than Romney beat him in FL. And the fight goes on.
Second point: I know that PPP is a Democrat polling firm. However, I don’t think that necessarily causes bias in a intra-Republican race (as against a Republican v. Democrat race.) And PPP has had an excellent record in the primary season so far, making very good Iowa and New Hampshire predictions. So I trust PPP more than other polls showing an outsize Romney lead.
expecting a double-digit win for Romney? not so fast Sherlock.
to the GOP elites, even if Mitt wins by one vote, they’ll say that Mitt is destined to be the nominee (cough, cough, cough)
didn’t mean that to you “ez”...I was saying that out loud to the MSM and GOP leaders.
Rick Santorum will soon be known as the Benedict Arnold of the conservatives movement.
A Mitt win will be less than 5%, and Newt could still beat him.
A lot of people see through very negative ads.
Romney was/is/shall be a slimeball.
People don’t like slimeballs. They generally do not have balls, certainly not ethics.
No worries. :)
Why do people not believe the liars in the liberal press but do believe the liberal liars with their phoney polls?
These polls showing Gingrich closing are the CYA polls so the stupid liars preserve some shred of credibility. These polling companies are another arm of the rat propaganda machine. We see this garbage every election.
Maybe, but if he not only endorses Gingrich post-Florida, but campaigns for Gingrich in areas where people like him, that might help prevent that.
The party hacks will then run around telling everyone to hold their noses and vote for Romney. You know, the better of two evils etc.
But it doesn't matter if Romney or Obama is elected, as they're both riding in the same limo.
I personally believe our electoral process has been undermined, compromised and manipulated for many years and what we are seeing is a orchestrated choreographed show.
You make a good point about avoiding delusion in assessing this. A couple of reasons I think the race is closer are: 1) Gingrich is generating a lot of intense support. His base will for sure show up, but Romney has largely bought his recent surge; 2) Romney has never carried as much as 40% in any primary. He still has to prove he can carry enough conservative votes to get that high.
Newt is getting some conservative backing and a little consolidation with Herman Cain coming to his defence. Sarah Palin is still a wild card in this. Her blunt rebuttal to the establishment is still just starting to sink in. Let’s see what we get out of Rush, Hannity, Ingram and especially Levin tomorrow. Their opinions carry a lot of weight and can give voters some last minutre things to think about.
Last week when the simulataneous carpetbombing starting from Romney and all these other attackers from the Reagan years and after, Rush stated that this is exactly the stuff that makes people hate Romney. He really was ticked at this because he knows that this tactic may kill Newt and in the process will likely split the party. Levin was really good in going after Romney’s record and noting how the establishment has given us lots of moderate losers.
Although a longshot, Newt has to keep fighting and close the gap and keep his campaign viable. There is still so much left to go. Beyond that, I still believe in miracles. I have seen too many in my life to give in to the moderates.
Conservatives polling 8% over the liberal RINO and 36% above the nutcase.
Gentlemen, you have got to come to a power sharing agreement before the libs own the election.
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