Gingrich Winning the Crowd Race in Florida

thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com ^ | 1/26/2012 | MICHAEL D. SHEAR

[TBBT]

MIAMI — How much do crowds matter?

As Republican presidential candidates duke it out down here in Florida, the most visible measure of how they are doing is the crowd count.

And by that very simple measure, Newt Gingrich is crushing his opposition.

At an event Tuesday afternoon, more than 1,500 people showed up to rally for Mr. Gingrich. Later that evening, he stood before as many as 5,000 people, all applauding his surge toward the Republican nomination. And then on Wednesday, another 4,000 people.

Contrast that to Mitt Romney, who, according to polls, is roughly tied with Mr. Gingrich in the state. He, too, has been traveling around Florida in an effort to recover the momentum he had after a big win in New Hampshire.

Mr. Romney has not had a crowd with more than a couple hundred people since he arrived in the Sunshine State.

A Monday morning event was purposely small — a round-table meeting with eight people. But a Tuesday morning speech had about 100 people in a cavernous warehouse that could have held thousands. And a visit to a foreclosed house attracted about 200.

Then, on Wednesday, another warehouse and about 150 people.

[TBBT]

Yet the polls tell a different story. Rasmussen is out confirming the IA poll. Romney has experienced a surge since the last debate. It's almost like the polling question is "Who do you think won the last debate?" vs. "Who do you prefer for president?"

Romney appears to leading in the Hispanic community by 15. What's that all about?

So what's having the most impact? Monday night's debate? The conservative/establishment media going after Newt?

An OK debate tonight for Newt may not do it for him. He appears to need another game changing debate. That may be too much to hope for. How many break-out debate performances can one guy be expected to muster? In many respects Newt will not have any control over a lot of what happens. It's heavily dependent on what questions the moderators asks etc.

Conventional wisdom says that Newt is great debater. But, I've noted some glaring weaknesses. Newt has had a difficult time responding to direct attacks from the other candidates. He does well with attacks from the media. He also does well defending from the moderators liberal attacks on conservatism.

Newt needs to hit a couple of home runs tonight or this may be all over except for the counting. I don't know, but to me it's looking almost like a bridge too far. When you got every conceivable force lining up against you (especially despicable - the conservative media), it just may be too much to overcome.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

Haven’t seen this much flak, since Sarah Palin was still in the mix.

[TBBT]

Actually Iowa was similar...

[Cringing Negativism Network]

No.

This is new. This is that moment in a chess game, when each side has lined up, one by one deploying their assets all focused toward what will inevitably follow a first, almost inconsequential attack of a lone pawn, in the front row; one single pawn.

Whose fate will determine checkmate, after the next 20 moves eventually leave one side with a one crucial piece advantage.

Probably eventually, a Rook. Or a Bishop. Which will enable a pawn to move to that final row.

Florida is that pawn on that square, about to start what follows.

Every piece on the board, is now arrayed with that square in mind.

RINOs have their Romney. Coulter. Drudge. Fox.

We’ve got flyover country. America.

Game on.

[rightwingextremist1776]

I agree...this is where Romney’s money trumps popularity...

I hope Newt weathers this.....if he does and takes Fla I have no doubt that he will weather anything else the commies might have in store for him.

[Reagan69]

I can confirm the Newt crowds are huge. I went to a little restaurant in St. Pete to hear him. There were at least 800 - 1000 people. I was stunned.

From the article (this is rich):
A top aide to Mr. Romney on Wednesday dismissed the difference in crowd sizes, saying that Mr. Romney’s campaign had made a tactical decision to focus less on crowd size ...

Sure, most politicians don’t like big crowds. Yeah, right.

[WalterSkinner]

..Republican establishment, fellow travelers in the so-called alternative media, skewed polling, and an all-out nuclear attack with negative ads-- if Newt survives this he will take it all IMO

As some have already pointed out, after SC, the Romney machine went back to the Iowa playbook.

What is amazing is that many of these people actually think I would vote for Romney in the general--about 20 seconds after I see pigs flying through the air--and not on ski lifts...

[bopdowah]

Remember, polls cannot be fully trusted. You never know what axe they’re grinding, what their sample size was, or how they framed the choices. That doesn’t stop people from reading tea leaves all the time, though because people feel a need to know and the media is there to give it to ‘em. The only poll that really counts is the one on Election Day.

From what I understand, most polls predicted a tight race when it was Reagan vs Carter back in 1980, but Reagan won by a landslide.

[Ozymandias Ghost]

I would trust crowds more than polls in this election ...pollsters all make their money from the current corrupt elitist system by offering their services to the various candidates and media analysts; therefore, even the normally accurate and “trustworthy” pollsters have a vested interest in pushing Romney. Newt is perceived by them as “rogue” ...he has become the de facto Tea Party candidate ...they see Tea Partiers, and Newt, by extension, as a THREAT!!!

A tangential factor is that many analysts believe the 12% Hispanic vote in FL will side w/whomever is the perceived winner (i.e.: ahead in the polls) at the time of the election. Hence, the pollsters have reason to believe that, in this case, perception can, and will, become reality.

[moehoward]

Wonderfully stated.

[Wilum]

Any talk down there about how the absentee and early voting might affect Newt?