Posted on 01/06/2012 9:18:00 AM PST by Qbert
One does not need to be a rocket scientist to grasp the fudging the BLS has been doing every month for years now in order to bring the unemployment rate lower: the BLS constantly lowers the labor force participation rate as more and more people "drop out" of the labor force for one reason or another. While there is some floating speculation that this is due to early retirement, this is completely counterfactual when one also considers the overall rise in the general civilian non institutional population. In order to back out this fudge we are redoing an analysis we did first back in August 2010, which shows what the real unemployment rate would be using a realistic labor force participation rate. To get that we used the average rate since 1980, or ever since the great moderation began. As it happens, this long-term average is 65.8% (chart 1). We then apply this participation rate to the civilian noninstitutional population to get what an "implied" labor force number is, and additionally calculate the implied unemployed using this more realistic labor force. We then show the difference between the reported and implied unemployed (chart 2). Finally, we calculate the jobless rate using this new implied data. It won't surprise anyone that as of December, the real implied unemployment rate was 11.4% (final chart) - basically where it has been ever since 2009 - and at 2.9% delta to reported, represents the widest divergence to reported data since the early 1980s. And because we know this will be the next question, extending this lunacy, America will officially have no unemployed, when the Labor Force Participation rate hits 58.5%, which should be just before the presidential election.
Labor Force Participation since 1980:
Reported and Implied number of Unemployed:
Difference between Reported and implied unemployment rate:
Here is the website for the BLS data in their own words.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Are temp jobs included?
Regardless of the exact % none of the candidates have any plan that will reduce it the 4% full employment rate.
PS We have had the Bush tax cuts and they haven’t worked. Plan B needed.
"PS We have had the Bush tax cuts and they haven’t worked. Plan B needed."
When you have to hit this bottle this early in the day, it's a real problem. Please seek help.
Gee, its back down to 1980 numbers. But don’t worry, we’re in a recovery, happy days are here again, sit your racist butt down and feeel happy that things are so great.
Regardless of the exact % none of the candidates have any plan that will reduce it the 4% full employment rate.
PS We have had the Bush tax cuts and they haven’t worked. Plan B needed.
I’m guessing you’re probably passed out on your keyboard, and won’t be reading this- but you just double-posted a comment from ten minutes ago...
Bumpity bump.
Bumpity bump.
That's not true. Real tax cuts always work. But their effect is only temporary, as government continues to grow.
Any number of things - huge debt and deficits, credit downgrades, overregulation, inflation, etc. erode the positive effects of tax cuts.
.
Self bump for later.
Regardless of the exact % none of the candidates have any plan that will reduce it the 4% full employment rate.
PS We have had the Bush tax cuts and they haven’t worked. Plan B needed.
“Any number of things - huge debt and deficits, credit downgrades, overregulation, inflation, etc. erode the positive effects of tax cuts.”
Thank you for that chart. Do you have the 8 years from before the Bush tax cuts? Before Bush made China a permanent favored trading partner [which dissipated any benefit USA jobs could have had from his tax cuts]
Why don’t you go find the data yourself if you are going to make charges like that. And please post your sources.
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