Posted on 12/31/2011 2:46:30 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster
The Signs Are Bad, and Time Is Short
By The Daily NK
[2011-12-30 09:52 ]
On Thursday, ten days of mourning for Kim Jong Il was wound up. Internally, there have been no signs of anything out of the ordinary since Kim’s sudden death was announced on December 19th. In content and style, the mourning process was very similar to that of Kim Il Sung, up to and including the wailing mourners.
Although international observers have long held concerns about the new leader, twenty-something year old Kim Jong Eun, the North Korean authorities have not taken long to proclaim him as the sole successor to power in North Korea. Rodong Shinmun has already spoken of Kim Jong Eun in terms of the ‘supreme commander’. At the earliest, he could rise to that position officially in January.
Terms such as ‘respected leader’, the kind of superlative which took Kim Jong Il a while after the death of Kim Il Sung to earn, has been lavished upon Kim Jong Eun in a matter of days. Subtle hints that his position is now the de facto head of the Central Committee took less than a week to emerge. This is all taking place faster than anyone could have expected. The schedule from this point on for North Korea’s body politic is expected to focus primarily on the safe transfer of power and control to the new leader.
In North Korea, becoming the ‘Suryeong’ is the peak of authority. Being the ‘Suryeong’ is to have absolute power. For this reason it is possible to reign over North Korea without even holding any official public office, and for this reason it really doesn't matter much what his position actually is or is not. Nevertheless, it is hard to deny that the current situation reflects the haste with which authorities are now trying to turn Kim Jong Eun’s lacking mandate into some form of real authority.
As the final events of the mourning period finished, the body of Kim Jong Il left the world stage for the final time to be entombed in the enormous Keumsusan Memorial Palace. The man may be gone, but his legacy will continue to control the city of Pyongyang and the future of North Korea for a while to come. In fact, one cannot but take the orderly scenes we saw of North Korea directly after Kim’s death as a sign that his policies are still working, rather than as an indication of Kim Jong Eun’s influence. Harsh public order and a blueprint for crisis response involving massive force are, for the moment, protecting Kim Jong Eun.
The authorities have already said that Kim Jong Il’s greatest legacy is nuclear weapons. They have also promised a number of times that the military-first political system will continue in perpetuity. It is Kim Jong Il's inheritance anyway, so cannot be rolled back. If all goes well, Kim Jong Eun will eventually take over as leader of both the Party and the military, and continue the military-first system while maintaining the small nuclear arsenal the country has.
Already Kim Jong Eun is showing a nasty streak to rival his father, with the policies and crackdowns he has already aimed at want-away citizens acting as proof of that. Three generations of guilt-by-association is being spoken of again, and soldiers at the border are said to have received shoot-to-kill orders. Riot squads and students from political universities, the most loyal to the regime, patrol the streets conducting searches of passers-by and their belongings.
So as he cried in front of his father’s body and escorted the funeral procession along the streets of Pyongyang, what pledges might Kim Jong Eun have made to himself? There is almost no chance that he was pondering economic reforms and mass hunger, given the enormous compassion he felt for his father. There is also probably good reason to wonder whether some Delphic advice his father gave to former Party secretary Hwang Jang Yeop might not have come to mind: “Working for the people? No, you must strike fear in the people.”
Having taken the legacy and absolute authority of his father, Kim Jong Eun is now unmistakeably a dictator. As long as he continues to watch over and develop the institutions created by Kim Jong Il, his regime will be nothing more than an imitation of the one which came before it. The possibility of this happening grows larger with each passing day. So, the question for South Korea is: where to from here? How long will we be able to try to coax Kim Jong Eun into adopting economic reforms? Will any of our presidential candidates have the ability to engage with him?
The only thing we know right now is that if things continue at their current pace, Kim Jong Eun is going to be no more than the latest huge barrier to reform and democratization in North Korea.
He was a good student of Stalin
P!
I read once that he is said to be just as bad, if not worse, than his father. I imagine he'll crack down hard on the people to show his strength and power. I feel sorry for the people having to "mourn" in the frozen streets for a mass murderer who cared only about himself. Communism is pure evil.
Any word yet from the people who thought that Kim Jong-il was going to be a liberal reformer?
And the Democratic Party.
And the UN had their flag at half-mast.
Can’t run a dictatorship without an army. Ergo, the dictator “rules” at the army’s pleasure and the army really runs the show. If Kim the heir wants to live long enough to fill his father’s miniature shoes, he will have to toe the line and spout the rhetoric.
Fat Boy needs to go on that lead diet.
Three bullets a day, for one day, and then he gets a send off like his roasting-in-Hell daddy.
The newest Kim is the most obvious symbol of this regime, but the point is just as valid for every member of the royal family, the entire party cadre and all the flag rank army brass.
I am sure they all remember the fall of the Communist Bloc -- what happened to Nicolae Ceauşescu haunts their sleep.
They probably imagine hordes of starving people descending on Pyongyang. People starved and abused to the point where they just don't care anymore.
All the Army's guns might not help them then. And if the junior soldiers and officers join in...
Yep, only way to overthrow this sort of regime is by a concerted uprising and killing off the current rulers. Biggest problem is that in the ealry stages it will be a few hundred to a few thousand of the people bleeding for every one of the enemy they take out. I also wonder whether we and/or China would throw other wrenches into the mix.
what is meant by “democratization” that word has been so bastardized
They moved the UN to a ship?
Now is the time for agencies to visit North Korean on tour groups, scientific exchanges, diplomatic posts and other methodologies. More word on what the hell is going on there on the ground and within both the Korean Workers Party and the Korean Peoples Army must get out some how. Further, large cash amounts of Western bribery should be offered to key Communist DPRK diplomatic personal overseas to come over the fence, particularly those with working knowledge of Kim Jong Un and/or what the inner workings are at this time and at a rather senior level. This is something that drones and SIGINT and satellite monitor is just not going to pick up, hard HUMINT is needed. It will be extremely dangerous but it will also be extremely necessary, considering the nuke arsenal and mobile missile developments. God I hope they do not do something before we can get this Obama out of the White House and clean out State, Defense, National Intelligence, NSC, etc. with an entirely new crew. If Obama is reelected we are in for some of the most horrific times possible.
I not get my wish this not going end up like Kill Bill Vol 1 ending RATS LOL!
On our side, I suspect that many so-called 'hard currency earning traders' from N. Korea have been bought to provide inside info. These folks are mostly family members of high level regime elites. We provide tidy amount of cash, and it is an easiest way of getting hard currency for NK traders. Those who can earn lots of cash will impress folks back in Pyongyang, and they can win more confidence from regime inner circle, which leads to better access to high quality intel. Of course, the regime are always guarding against such development. However, it is such a lucrative deal that they could be protected by powerful figures.
It's time to step it up, and aggressively reach those who feel that the ax will fall on them soon, because they feel that they are on the losing side of power struggle.
The trouble is that most of these operations are done in China, and Chicom can yank all of them if they desire. A big handicap.
A friend of mine sent this one to me. Apparently there was a giant at the funeral.
http://m.gawker.com/5871938/um-why-is-there-a-giant-at-kim-jong+ils-funeral
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.