They have thousands of anti-ship missiles spread over thousands of square miles, hidden in caves. We need to destroy every one of them to open the straits. Without “boots on the ground” covering all of the launch territory, this won't be easy.
As a comparison, to show the difficulty of destroying all of the mobile missiles, the Iraqis were launching SCUDs up until the very end of Desert Storm. And SCUDs are enormous rockets that must be erected to vertical, and filled with liquid fuel from tanker trucks before they can be fired. And with all of our assets, we were not able to prevent them from launching.
OTOH, the anti-ship missiles are smaller, solid fuel rockets, launched from near-horizontal from trucks. IOW, they take just a fraction of the time to pull out of a hidden cave and launch.
Anybody who thumps his chest and says, “The US Navy can keep the straits open, easy,” is a fool in my estimation. Not unless they have figured out a way to find and destroy thousands of mobile missile launchers spread over thousands of square miles of craggy cliffs and ravines surrounding the straits.
Especially considering who we have for a CiC.
Anyone who thinks the USA under any kind of rational leadership will simply allow Iran to close the Persian Gulf to tanker traffic by letting them launch a few missles every few days is a fool, in my opinion.
Hunting for Silkworm missiles one by one is not the only option available to bring pressure to bear on Iran.
Keeping the straits open could be done, by a President who really wanted to.
The first molestation of a ship in the straits would be answered by leveling the personal residences of Imadinnerjacket and each mullah in the ruling council. A statement would be made that any missile launched from Iranian territory would be answered by destroying something that the rulers would be upset to see destroyed. We would focus on the homes of the Basij, next.
Agreed. Almost all of the discussion seems pointed at how well the USN can defend against anti-shipping missiles and attacks from Iran on the USN.
The problem is that all the Iranians have to do is threaten the slow-moving unarmed tankers. Mine a few, sink or disable a few. Insurance is yanked, oil companies cease ops. If on ship is hit, companies will either be able to keep going at 100% or suspend ops for EVERYTHING.
The USN can only escort some % of shipping, and/or retaliate in escalation, something we are politically unprepared for.
Cutting the flow even a little will turn catastrophic for the West, they don't actually have to close it down.
A threat to take out their desalination plants would make that glass of water harder to find.
If we kill enough Iranians and destroy enough Iranian property, the Iranians themselves will put a stop to the closing of the straits.
“Anybody who thumps his chest and says, “The US Navy can keep the straits open, easy,” is a fool in my estimation. Not unless they have figured out a way to find and destroy thousands of mobile missile launchers spread over thousands of square miles of craggy cliffs and ravines surrounding the straits.”
I agree, as things stand now, it cannot be done. To make that area safe for shipping, IF Iran decides to a committed COA of closing the straits, is not doable with our current forces. The Navy certainly could not do it alone...it has been too gutted.
It would take a full blown invasion of Iran to stop them. That isn’t going to happen.
However, I think Iran will play cat and mouse on a small scale, but won’t go any farther than that....unless they sense weakness (a real probability). However, even then will Iran risk bringing the entire world down on themselves? This won’t just be a problem for the U.S.
Nice post. Are we capable of launching an EMP that would fry their electronics or is that mostly smoke & mirrors?
Guess you've discounted the possibility of a MEU's being tasked with sweeping the Iranian littoral along the Straits, supported by, say 10th Mountain and other assets from the States. None of this patrolling and w/o IED stuff, either -- I'm talking about just killing everything that moves, wrecking everything that doesn't move, and turning that part of the country into scorched dirt.
There's even easier options that will leave their AS assets inoperable, period. But that would be mean or something. (Now ask me if I care. Do you?)