I don't see the Libertarians getting much more than 1% of the national popular vote, a little more in some western states. Now in what states in particular do you see Johnson polling well enough to throw the state to Obama and how many total electoral votes might that be?
Ah see follow up post 43, I forgot to ping you on that.
There’s the article about the New Mexico poll (democrat but not disreputable firm PPP) that had
Obama 44
(Hypothetical GOP nominee) Myth Romney 27
Johnson 21
I overeact I’m sure. After all Bob Barr is certainly more well known nationwide than Johnson and he got 0.4% nationwide and only .73% in Georgia despite polls showing him getting 2 or 3% in his home state (he was as high as 8% is some earlier polls).
The first and only time the Libertarian got over (and it was just over) 1% of the vote was in 1980 when the guy, Ed Clark (with David Koch as his running mate, yes the Koch brothers Koch) ran as a “low tax liberal” and probably took as many votes from Carter if not more.
Clark got almost 12% in Alaska though for some reason. Alaska was their best state in Presidential elections 1976-88.
So after thinking about it I’m not worried about Johnson, except quite possibly in New Mexico.