Posted on 12/21/2011 11:13:47 AM PST by freespirited
It’s becoming all too predictable.
As soon as a GOP presidential candidate gains traction in Iowa, the bright lights hit him/her and they melt down like a cheap candle. The latest to follow the pattern is, of course, Newt Gingrich. Just 15 days ago, we measured Newt with a robust 30 percent. But everyone—including the merry elves at We Ask America—warned that Gingrich could soon travail down the Newt Chute due to the cyclical habits exhibited by GOP frontrunners and the former Speaker’s penchant for provocative barbs.
Sure enough, Gingrich appears to be fading badly, but those who have dumped him seem to have spread their new affections more evenly than others have reported. While Ron Paul has picked up a bit more of Newt’s castoffs, the field is starting to look like a real horse race. Here’s our latest numbers from last night and a tracking comparison of the last five polls we conducted in the Hawkeye State:Type of Poll: Automated - Date of Poll: 12/20/2011 - Participants: 1,250 GOP voters - Margin of Error: ± 2.77%
| Bachmann | Gingrich | Huntsman | Paul | Perry | Romney | Santorum | Uncertain | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL VOTERS | 15% | 16% | 4% | 19% | 11% | 18% | 9% | 8% |
| GENDER | ||||||||
| Female | 14% | 13% | 4% | 18% | 11% | 20% | 8% | 11% |
| Male | 15% | 18% | 4% | 20% | 12% | 17% | 9% | 5% |
| AGE BRACKET | ||||||||
| 18-24 | 50% | 8% | 3% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| 25-34 | 26% | 13% | 10% | 21% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 8% |
| 35-44 | 11% | 23% | 2% | 30% | 11% | 14% | 7% | 4% |
| 45-54 | 14% | 13% | 5% | 24% | 8% | 14% | 13% | 10% |
| 55-64 | 12% | 18% | 3% | 21% | 8% | 19% | 10% | 8% |
| 65+ | 11% | 16% | 3% | 14% | 15% | 26% | 7% | 8% |
TRACKER:
| Candidate | Aug. 16* | Nov. 6 | Nov. 28 | Dec. 5 | Dec. 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Bachmann | 17% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 15% |
| Herman Cain | 5% | 22% | 7% | N/A | N/A |
| Newt Gingrich | 5% | 18% | 29% | 30% | 16% |
| Jon Huntsman | 1% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Ron Paul | 8% | 11% | 11% | 14% | 19% |
| Rick Perry | 29% | 4% | 5% | 7% | 11% |
| Mitt Romney | 15% | 15% | 13% | 16% | 18% |
| Rick Santorum | 4% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 9% |
| Uncertain | 9% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 8% |
The results for Ron Paul in last night’s poll may actually be a couple of points better than it shows here among the general electorate due to his strength in the 35-44 & 45-54 age brackets, but the Iowa caucuses skew older so we’re not ready to grant him the Clear Leader Status yet. However, Paul reportedly is the only candidate who has the ground troops to put a live body in each of the 1,700+ Iowa precincts…an impressive feat to say the least. In addition, Congressman Paul has been among the most consistent performers in Iowa and elsewhere. Combine those facts with the quirkiness of Iowa caucus system and it’s impossible to not put him at the top of the heap for now.
But perhaps Paul would be better off NOT being looked at as the Big Kahuna given the fate of the last few players who occupied the top of the leader board. Like the Greek legend of Icarus, every Republican who flies too close to the sun in an attempt to escape the surly bonds of the pack ends up melting his/her wings in the blazing heat of the sun.
With President Barack Obama reportedly regaining some lost ground, can the Republicans finally find someone who can take the heat?
Everyone except Romney gets this treatment
... I wonder why?
After all, he is the only candidate the democraps tell us will beat their guy, and gosh they are so afraid of him
Usually just when they tell us not to throw them in dat ol’ briar patch too
Romney is definately behind this. I hate the man more every day. I will join the non participants if Romney wins. And it is looking like his pack of RINO Washington operatives are making it happen. The RNC won’t get another dime from me.
Aww, buck up, there, little soldier!
Just think: Only 11 more months to go, and we will either save the country or flush it.
See? I'll bet you're feeling better already.
They are overjoyed at the chaos they have and are causing. And Romney is behind it. He also has Bachmann helping him.
The GOP elite is behind it. They’ve already decided who the nominee will be. One of these days they’ll tell us who it is.
See my tagline.
Seriously, it’s time to get real. Romney is stagnant at the 20% level, Gingrich is (unfortunately) imploding as we speak, and is plainly untelegenic and unelectable in the general, Paul is all but a joke, and unless we have a new candidate coming in, the horse race is between Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum.
I’m making preparations for exactly that. The country is as good as down the tubes, unless a miracle happens and Newt does manage to take it. But I am not holding my breath out of experience.
people here say Freep this poll well I say Fu.. these polls
LOL! Not one of the three wannabes you mentioned has even a speck of a chance against the Obama meat grinder!
It will be a slaughter. The Romney machine is making it a reality.
1980 — George Bush /Not The Nominee
1988 — Bob Dole/ Not The Nominee
1996 — Bob Dole/The Nominee
2000 — George W. Bush/The Nominee
2008 — Mike Huckabee/ Not The Nominee
Paul winning this one doesn't mean anything unless he has New Hampshire or South Carolina wrapped up.
I long for the good old days.
Scott Brown for President!!! Wooo Wooo.
People, either vote your conscience or stay home. Voting for anyone but the other guy has got us to this point. If we don’t have the courage of our convictions then we will never save the Republic.
If you keep giving the public polls attention they will keep leading you around by the nose. TNSTAAFL. Polls = Free Advice on who to vote for...
I received 8 calls last night in about an hour; made the mistake to pick up 2 which were of course polling or political.
So my questions is; who is answering these calls? Who is the polling sample??
Newt is seen for what he really is...a progressive. This is good news for conservatives.
Ron Paul doesn't, either. But that isn't surprising.
It's time conservative candidates or organizations in Iowa took Paul out by distributing photos of him with former KKK Grand Wizard Don Black:
http://blogs4conservatives.wordpress.com/2007/12/21/ron-paul-and-don-black-photo-op/
AND, Romney can win Iowa and NH, but still lose big time in SC and Florida. Newt is still in better shape than Romney,who I still predict will not win any Southern primaries. So my take is unless Newt decides to drop out he’s going to win this thing. Especially if he picks Rubio as his running mate.
Welcome to Free Republic.
Of course...Romney is the DNC/media candidate. They know he won’t embarrass Obama by asking him about his non functional birth certificate, or his social security card originally issued to someone born in 1890. Gingrich might, and Paul would.
There’s lots about Obama the libs need to hide.
OK- then who do you think has a chance!
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