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Analysis coming from Maehara, former Foreign Minister (of ruling DPJ here in Tokyo) is that we now enter a period of possible civil war and outflow of refugees. He is not discounting it, in national TV. I hope he is incorrect. He is just saying what COULD happen. Man things are TENSE TODAY.

North Korea is going to bust wide open one of these years. Too much famine, and now there is a kid, relatively speaking, at the head of the government, who might be at odds with the old guys that actually run the place.

Even if he was interested in reform, no reform can happen without order falling apart in a country as bad off as North Korea. I would not be surprised if North Korea tried to create their own version of the Mariel boatlift. Would get the people out of the country who are most likely to start a civil war or support a coup.

I would not be surprised if North Korea tried to create their own version of the Mariel boatlift. Would get the people out of the country who are most likely to start a civil war or support a coup.

That is something to be devoutly hoped for, but in my reading of North Korean culture (possibly wrong) I would say that they are not just touchy, they're fanatical about "face". Probably quite a bit more than their Southern counterparts (based on the number of Koreans I know).

That being the case, I am afraid they would be more likely to shoot the dissidents or crooks rather than let them go. It's a touchy situation. The military and Kim might want to go eyeball to eyeball, but at the street level, I expect the iron glove to be on and merciless.