Posted on 12/18/2011 7:13:39 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
New Year, New Kim, Same Policies
By John Hemmings
January 02, 2012
Kim Jong-un is too weak to expect a shift in North Korean policy. The only question is whether 2012 will be a year of provocations.
Events surrounding the death of Kim Jong-il have revealed a country in transition, and an elite apparently shifting seamlessly from one ruler to another. Yet the funeral list, the promotion of Kim’s youngest son as ‘Great Successor’ and ‘Supreme Commander,’ and the political movements around Kim’s sister Kim Kyung-hee and her husband, Chang Sung-taek have underscored the shifting balance of power between the Kims and the National Defence Commission, the Korean People’s Army (KPA), and the Korean Worker’s Party (KWP).
Now, following the remarkable rally that transferred power to Kim Jong-un, the question of most interest to Seoul, Tokyo and Washington is whether we will we see more of the same in 2012, or can we expect some sort of change? And if Kim Jong-un is going to shift North Korean internal and external policy, will it be for the better or for the worse?
How to reunite Korea without going broke or creating chaos.
North Korea: Economic Leverage and Policy
Analysis
Dick K. Nanto, Specialist in Industry and Trade
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs
January 22, 2010
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32493.pdf
N. Korea’s foreign debt estimated at US$18 billion (2008)
SEOUL, Oct. 7 (Yonhap) — North Korea is believed to be suffering from serious economic woes as the country’s external debt is estimated to be US$18 billion, a lawmaker said Tuesday.
North Korea owes a total of $18 billion to 30 different countries, including Russia and China, said Kwon Young-se of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP), citing estimates from the Unification Ministry.
The amount is almost equal to North Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) for last year, which totaled 24.7 trillion won ($18.4 billion).
South Korea has loaned roughly 1.19 trillion won to the North, equivalent to nearly five percent of Pyongyang ‘s total foreign debt.
In comparison, the South’s overseas debt stood at 264.2 billion won, almost one-third of its GDP of 901 trillion won for last year.
“North Korea’s foreign debt is the result of the accumulation of unpaid trade bills and loans that it received from socialist states in the 1950s and 60s and from the Western world in the 70s to develop its economy,” Kwon said.
“The volume of foreign debt is expected to continue to rise due to the interest added to unpaid debts, although that can fluctuate depending on the result of negotiations with foreign creditors,” he added.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2008/10/07/2/0401000000AEN20081007005400315F.HTML
More info about the picture, that is from the 105 Tank Division: http://nkleadershipwatch.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/kim-jong-un-visits-105-tank-divison/
http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk02500&num=8641
North-Japan Set for “Strained” 2012
By Mok Yong Jae
[2012-01-04 17:41 ]
The Joint New Year’s Editorial released on the 1st did not mention Japan at all, raising the assessment that Japan will be kept far off in North Korea’s future. According to a professor with Kansai University and a North Korea expert in Japan, Lee Young Hwa, future North Korea-Japan relations will be strained.
Professor Lee, speaking with Daily NK today, explained, “The main issue in North Korea-Japan relations is the ‘abductees’ problem, but for a while there will be no dialogue regarding this. North Korea will likely keep a hard-line stance toward Japan because Kim Jong Eun’s birth mother Koh Young Hui was a Korean-Japanese”.
Were this fact to emerge, the legitimacy of the North Korean supreme leader’s bloodline could get diluted. Currently in North Korea, knowledge of Koh Young Hui’s birthplace is top secret, meaning that if anyone were to speak of it they would end up in a political prison camp.
“Kim Jong Eun himself will attempt to conceal the fact that he is a descendant of a Korean-Japanese person, and that will be reflected in North Korea’s policies towards Japan,” Professor Lee commented, adding, “Chongryon(pro-Pyongyang Federation of Korean Residents in Japan)’s relationship with North Korea will get worse because of the previous relationship with Koh Young Hui. It will worsen. However, Chongryon is continuing to strengthen its allegiance to Kim Jong Eun by sending him loyalty funds.”
“Koh Young Hui idolization, similar to that for Kim Jong Suk, will take place, fabricating her career to produce a fake myth,” he added.
Meanwhile, regarding the idea of a ‘collective leadership system’ following Kim Jong Il’s death, Professor Lee said he believes it has “already settled in.”
Even before his stroke, Kim Jong Il suffered from Alzheimer’s and a collective leadership system has been in operation for some time to deal with that, according to Lee. North Korea has been preparing since that time, and introduced the collective leadership system in late 2007. Furthermore, Professor Lee claims that the Yeonpyeong Island shelling was due to internal conflicts in this collective leadership system.
“Kim Jong Il, had symptoms of Alzheimer’s since 2007. Since then the operation of a collective leadership system has bee in place and this is the reason why North Korea was not agitated by Kim Jong Il’s stroke or when he recently died.”
Controversially, he also emphasized, “The 2010 Yeonpyeong Island Shelling was due to internal conflict in the collective leadership system. Generally thought to have been conducted by hard-liners, the Yeonpyeong Island Shelling was led by Jang Sung Taek and Lee Young Ho.”
According to Professor Lee, at the 2010 Party Delegates’ Conference Lee Young Ho was appointed to a key post with Jang Sung Taek’s backing. But, other military groups had complaints about this, yet even before these could be expressed, Jang and Lee initiated the Yeonpyeong shelling. It was to turn attention outside of North Korea.
He underscored, “There are many opposition groups in the Worker’s Party and the military against Jang Sung Taek and Lee Young Ho. Those groups do not have the power to fight against Jang and Lee but Jang and Lee also do not have the power to purge these opposing forces. Currently, the collective leadership system is setting this balance of power.”
“Because of Kim Jong Il’s mourning period there are no ongoing disputes right now, but a dispute is likely to begin within six months. After that there could be cracks visible in the leadership,” he went on.
Professor Lee further evaluated that Kim Jong Eun is Jang Sung Taek and Lee Young Ho’s figurehead. Due to a lack of reliable people around Kim Jong Eun, Jang and Lee will have more weight in power.
Therefore, “Kim Jong Eun will likely be promoted to Chief-Secretary or Defense Commission Chairman on April 15th,” he said, but added that this is a mere formality to provide a skin for the ‘sole leadership system’.
http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=8633
No Hats, No Scarves, No Gloves!
By Lee Seok Young
[2012-01-03 10:23 ]
Daily NK has received information confirming the level of stage management that went into the memorial service for Kim Jong Il on December 28th in Pyongyang.
A source from the city told Daily NK on January 2nd, “The day before the event sending off comrade Kim Jong Il, heads of people’s units told us that ‘comrade Kim Jong Eun will also be escorting the General’s hearse bare-handed’ and conveyed a list of important instructions.”
According to the source, the authorities were intending to make sure that mourners were visible at every step along the hearse’s journey and that those attending not be wearing hats, gloves or scarves even if it was snowing. Residents were warned, the source said, that “behind every line there will be people watching.”
All appeared to go to plan; while South Korea’s meteorological authorities report that temperatures in Pyongyang on the 28th were a frigid -2.4°C, footage of the funeral ceremony from Chosun Central TV did indeed show Kim Jong Eun escorting the hearse bare-handed, and nobody visibly wearing gloves or scarves in the snowy conditions.
The source said that those ordered to keep watch on the behavior of the crowds were students from Kim Il Sung University, Kim Chaek University of Technology and Pyongyang University of Railways.
In other news, the source reported also that a numbers of cadres from the Central Party may have been purged as part of a program of criticism sessions dealing with misdemeanors dating from the mourning period.
“The mourning period has only been finished for a few days and already there are rumors that a few central cadres including the chief history lecturer at Kang Ban Seok Political School have been disposed of via criticism sessions for mistakes made during the mourning period,” the source explained. Kang Ban Seok Political School was established in 1947 for the original purpose of educating the female children of war heroes as Party cadres.
Similar events occurred following the death of Kim Il Sung, when the authorities employed criticism sessions to deal with real and perceived disloyalty so as to create an atmosphere of fear that helped Kim Jong Il establish his total authority.
A source from Yangkang Province commented to Daily NK that the criticism sessions were being referred to there too as an “important acid test of loyalty.” The source added, “To put it simply, what they mean is that anyone who was not participating sincerely during this period or disobeyed the instructions given out will be punished regardless of who they are.”
December 29th to January 8th, the latter being Kim Jong Eun’s birthday, is the designated period for criticism sessions regarding the mourning period.
It is mainly business as usual, although at a lower level due to restrictions on foreign currency, and:
everyone is watching their words and deeds to avoid getting caught out by the security forces.
However, that doesn’t mean that everything and everyone is in lockdown mode. According to the Changbai source, “The state’s crackdown is harsh, but Chosun people sustain their livelihoods off smuggling and currency exchange, so in some places like Kanggu and Yeonpung (border areas of Yangkang Province) they are continuing to smuggle things across steadily.”
Besides, the source concluded, “On or around the 20th, the order prohibiting business trips will be lifted, illegal phone calls with China will become possible again and smuggling will pick up. The fact that North Korea cannot afford to block trade with China for even a moment means it is inevitable that border phone calls will be possible. The North Korean authorities know as well as we do that traders need to be able to contact their partners by phone for trade exchanges to happen.”
http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=8646
Andrej Lankow wrote about Park Heon-young http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2012/01/363_102268.html
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak will visit Chinese President Hu Jintao starting tomorrow, so the information flow will increase again.
AiT any news about the boat off Okinoshima Island; infiltration, defectors or fishermen?
In an email in January after Kim Jong Il’s funeral Dec. 28, Kim Jong Nam voiced his opposition to the hereditary succession system that led to his younger brother, Kim Jong Un, being appointed North Korea's new leader.
Kim Jong Nam is also quoted by Gomi as saying that the existing power group will continue to hold the reins of power and plans to use the new, young leader as a symbol of North Korea.
Kim Jong Nam also said Kim Jong Il had remarked he wouldn't let any of his sons take power.
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120108a3.html
The gang of three will not be pleased with this book.
Pyongyang to preserve Kim for posterity
By Andrei Lankov
SEOUL - There is little doubt about what is going to happen to late North Korea leader Kim Jong-il’s body; there is an established tradition going back to the early days of the Soviet Union of what should be done. It might appear rather gruesome, but for decades it was seen as something quite natural from Prague to Hanoi.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/NA12Dg01.html
N. Korea: Kim Jong-nam Resurfaces in Beijing(Dad’s death is only natural?)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2833471/posts
S. Korea: Hardliner Kim Tae-hyo promoted in Blue House
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2833473/posts
Thanx.
Kim Jong-nam Says N.Korean Regime Won’t Last Long(and other revelations)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2833830/posts
[N. Korea] Asahi:Chinese Troops can Reach Pyeongyang in 2 Hours
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2836355/posts
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