The status quo is untenable. Everyone knows it, no one acts on it (yet).
The Romney nomination, which is inevitable, is an attempt by a dying party to keep the governing coalition that has ruled since 1933 in place. I don't think it will work.
Romney's nomination will split the GOP, and I doubt that it will be able to be revived in its present form.
Depending on WHEN Ronmey's victory is assured, an opposition force will appear. If he's a lock by, let's say, March, that opposition force will be very powerful.
The nature of the fourth party is less clear at this point. Will it be a Bell-Everett "can't we all just get along" party? Will it be a true, openly communist force?
The latter seems unlikely, but, in my view, only communism can cash the checks that politicians of both parties have been writing since 1965. As people come to realize that, support for a communist revolution may go as high as 15-20%.
A lot depends on what Barry's handlers decide to do. If he runs on "fundamental transformation", he will co-opt a lot of communists who believe (as I do) that he is one of them at heart. If he runs to the center, he will have communist opposition, unless Soros, Ayers, and whoever else is running the show decide that he's more valuable as a martyr.
Assuming that they keep him in the picture, and if he runs left, the war drums will be beating by Summer 2012. As mobs start rampaging in the cities, and as it becomes clear that Obama's reelection OR a conservative victory will both precipitate war, a "Constitutional Union" party running, let's say, Mitch Daniels and Sam Nunn will probably get into the picture.
Whatever happens, Romney as a major party nominee is unimportant, since there are no circumstances under which he can be elected.
DEMOCRATIC PARTY
After Eric Holder resigns and is thrown under the bus, more and more of Obama’s dirty laundry becomes public. Howard Dean announces his candidacy and accuses Obama of selling out to Wall Street and the Military-Industrial Complex. Dean wins the first primaries and caucuses.
A Democratic “death squad” goes down to the White House and explains to Obama that he still has the blacks, but the rest of his coalition has deserted him. He pulls an LBJ and stands down his candidacy.
The next day Hillary resigns as Secretary of State and announces her candidacy. She becomes the main rival to Dean, representing centrists, much the way her husband did. Wall Street money immediately piles in.
The Democratic Convention is a rerun of 1968 with super-delegates giving Clinton the nod. She picks Evan Bayh of Indiana as her running mate.
Dean pulls his people out of the Democratic Party, charging that it is collaborating with a corrupt establishment, and he dusts off the old name of the Progressive Party, picking Dennis Kucinich as his running mate.
REPUBLICAN PARTY
Mitt Romney is the last man standing and gets the nomination. There is an old saying, “Democrats fall in love; Republicans fall in line.” Conservatives are expected to fall in line. Wall Street falls in line.
As expected, Ron Paul leaves the Republican Party and goes to the Libertarians, but there is a shock. Paul explains that he is 76 and is too old to do this anymore. It is time for the Libertarians to grow up and merge with the Tea Party. Paul motions offstage, and Sarah Palin comes on. Paul endorses Palin for the Libertarian-Tea Party nomination. Palin picks Rand Paul of Kentucky as her running mate.
THE ELECTION
Palin once remarked that she expected 2012 to be an “unconventional” election. I assumed she meant that it would not be a two-way race. While two-way races are won from the middle, three- and four-way races are won from the base. He who consolidates his base the most wins, and the Great Middle doesn’t matter at all.
The model for a truly unconventional race is 1860. The two candidates of the center (Douglas and Bell) captured few states. The candidates who consolidated their bases (Lincoln and Breckinridge) won the most states. Lincoln was elected with only 40% of the popular vote.
Palin repeats Lincoln’s accomplishment with 38% of the popular vote. The Democratic and Republican Parties go to the ash heap of history, and the American political landscape changes.
No it's not. Likely, yes. Inevitable, no. We have two months before the first Caucuses take shape.