Wonderland ping.
1) Greeks vote on bailout/loss of sovereignty..
....a) Yes. Greeks get EU/EMU funds, continue rioting ad hoc, Greek gov't seeks another bailout w/in 6 months. Fishwrapper steadies up, probably rallies somewhat for the VERY short term, then falls when Portugal/Italy step up to the trough.
....b) No. Greek govt falls, extensive civil unrest for foreseeable future, EU/EMU washes hands of Greece over French protests. Fishwrapper likely falls sharply, option IVs go crazily upward, Eurobond spreads widen dramatically.
EUR/USD and SP500/DJIA are correlated very near 1.0 these days, and this will continue for at least a couple of weeks past this silly referendum. If Papadoucheyou had a brain in his head, he'd take the money, pay off the parties that need to be bought, and get the hell out of Dodge...er, Greece...with his Swiss bank accounts and his hide intact. That he is not doing this is the most accurate possible gauge of the depths of his stupidity (never mind outright incompetence; he's demonstrated that for years and years...he's a socialist, remember?).