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Libya Infrastructure Report 2011
Business Monitor International
January 27, 2011
70 Pages - Pub ID: BMI6194451

http://www.marketresearch.com/Business-Monitor-International-v304/Libya-Infrastructure-6194451/

Libya’s construction sector is fast becoming one of the most active in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with outstanding growth recorded in 2009. Historic growth levels combined with substantial infrastructure investment plans have guided an upward revision in our growth outlook for Libya’s construction sector over the short term, with real growth of 8.5% and 7.9% expected in 2011 and 2012 respectively.

There are a number of factors driving our optimistic outlook for Libya’s construction sector:

• Construction industry real growth for 2009 was reported at 9% year-on-year (y-o-y), making it one of the best performing countries globally, despite a difficult backdrop in terms of risk aversion and reduced oil revenues. Nominal growth came in at 26% y-o-y, however, this is cause for some concern, indicating high inflation levels in the construction sector.

• Substantial investment plans have been announced for the housing and infrastructure sectors, with a US$100bn, four-year (2009-2012) investment plan currently being executed. In June 2010, this was further increased by US$52bn, meaning a considerable amount of money will be directed to the construction sector.

• A healthy budget surplus is propping up investment plans, making them easily feasible. In 2010, BMI estimates that Libya’s budget surplus was 14.7% of GDP, and will remain in the double digits in both 2011 and 2012 (11.9% and 10.3% respectively). This is enabling the government to procure large-scale and capital-intensive construction projects.

• Demand stemming from a young and increasingly rich population is putting pressure on existing infrastructure. Economic growth is also demanding improved transport networks and access to electricity, both of which are crucial if the government wants to diversify away from the hydrocarbons sector into tourism and industrial production. The government is hoping to position Libya as the gateway to Africa, meaning improved transport networks are a priority.

• The presence of a number of international construction companies gives further credence to Libya’s plans, and the timely execution of projects. Austria’s Strabag, Brazil’s Odebrecht, Egypt’s Arab Contractors and Canada’s SNC-Lavalin are just a few of the companies already active in the country, and therefore likely to benefit from further contract opportunities.

A combination of the above factors is driving our optimism for Libya’s construction sector, with 2011 and 2012 expected to present the strongest growth owing to the four year investment plan running to 2012. Beyond this, between 2013 and 2020, growth is expected to slow, although it will remain strong, with annual average real growth of 5.5%. However, there is upside potential to this as another investment plan will likely follow the current one.