You are totally right in the importance of NH and IA in a normal cycle, but things are so volatile right now that a big win somewhere early would get the momentum started.
Perry is still alive and Newt is slowly gaining steam. And let’s not forget Mittens. Any one of these dudes could do something surprising and lock this thing up right away. GOP Primary voters generally coalesce around the best shot. I can’t remember another GOP Primary election where things drug out like the Rats in ‘08.
Any one of these dudes could do something surprising and lock this thing up right away.
So could Cain.
Just sayin.