Weiner's Old Seat Not So Safe for Democrats

Real Clear Politics ^ | September 1, 2011 | Caitlin Huey-Burns

[neverdem]

Voters in the traditionally blue 9th Congressional District of New York have less than two weeks before choosing a successor to Anthony Weiner, who resigned in June after admitting to inappropriate relationships with women online. To the surprise of many, the race has become competitive over the past month, attracting money and effort from the national parties, though several political experts in the state believe Democrats will ultimately squeak by. In recent days, however, Democratic candidate David Weprin complicated his party’s chances of holding on to the seat by committing a political gaffe and dropping out of a scheduled debate.

A recent Siena Research survey showed Weprin just six points ahead of his Republican rival, businessman Bob Turner (pictured above), which forecasts a tough race. Voters in this district, which comprises parts of Queens and Brooklyn, have soured on President Obama, though the majority supported him in 2008. Democrat Weiner handily won...

--snip--

Noted New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf: “It’s not an Obama Democrat district, it’s a Harry Truman Democrat district, which means people can do almost anything given an opportunity of alternatives.” Recognizing that opportunity, national Republicans have poured money into this race. And recent missteps by Weprin have helped their cause.

Weprin, a prominent name in Queens political circles and a former City Council Finance Committee chairman, recently sat down with the editorial board of the New York Daily News. When asked about the size of the national debt, he paused and with a “deer in headlights look” estimated the debt to be $4 trillion. (The Treasury Department puts it at about $14 trillion.) The gaffe doesn’t doom Weprin, but it certainly doesn’t bode well for him either, especially since he touts his eight years as finance chair when on the stump...

[neverdem]

The pic was on the regular webpage. I can see why the pic has no credit.

[hsalaw]

Love the “DEFEAT OBAMA” T-shirt in the background.

[JRandomFreeper]

To the surprise of many, {At the bar where the erstwhile journalist was trying to make deadline after screwing off all day... ed.}

The whole 'we're tired of politicians that can't keep it zipped, and while we're at it, we're tired of democrats' meme hasn't penetrated the bars where the 'journalists' write their screeds?

Say it isn't so. It could be the end of an era, and a bunch of paychecks.

/johnny

[Tanniker Smith]

I'll believe it when I see it. He's only around 6% down in an area where he should be 20-30% down. But it won't matter if he loses by 30% or 3%.

Can he pick up that last 6%? Maybe, but it isn't going to be easy. I'm hoping for strong motivation for Republicans and strong apathy among Democrats and a weak turnout.

[neverdem]

"Meanwhile, the debate sponsors were furious at Weprin. 'Living up to his reputation as a career politician relying on appointments and back door politics to survive in the complicated 9th Congressional District political world . . . David Weprin canceled his debate,' read a positing on the website for the Juniper Park Civic Association, which organized the event with the Times Newsweekly. By skipping the candidates forum, Weprin is telling voters to 'get lost, I owe you nothing but a smile and a handshake for the cameras,' said Robert Holden, president of the organization, in a statement. The Times Newsweekly’s publisher, Maureen Walthers, expressed similar sentiments to the New York Times. 'He disenfranchised all the voters in this area,' she said."

I'll believe it when I see it. He's only around 6% down in an area where he should be 20-30% down. But it won't matter if he loses by 30% or 3%.

Can he pick up that last 6%? Maybe, but it isn't going to be easy. I'm hoping for strong motivation for Republicans and strong apathy among Democrats and a weak turnout.

That turnout might depend on the lack of endorsements by the NY Daily News, Times Newsweekly, etc. for Weprin, and the effect of dissing the Juniper Park Civic Association if the race is close.