No way. Polls are amazingly prescient 8 months from the primaries or 15 months from the election. Why look at how Rudy swept the field last time, Or how Hillary was going to be the dem nominee, or how Trump was the frontrunner a few months ago. Dukakis was unbeatable, Reagan couldn't win, Mc Cain was the only one who could beat Hillary. Get with the program dude (or dudette), it's all done, the votes are already cast.
It's obvious you don't know how good these polls can be..................../s
The difference is that Palin is far better known nationally than most would-be candidates, and STILL fails to break 40 - 42% vs. Obama.
Go look up polling results for Republican candidates from August '99 and see who the front-runner was.