I think it depends on the city
I don’t expect some cities like Houston to ever see that big of a spike in crime .... people routinely keep their peacekeepers handy to resolve anyone wishing to take position of property not belonging to him.
Agreed. However, I think the biggest factor in this scenario is not the fear of those with arms, but the fact that people are living in government housing, fed by the government, with government cell phones, often getting government grants and cash payments, and they’re watching their big screens and doing their drugs. There is a big difference in todays poor and that of 4 years ago!
NYC has long had a lower murder rate than Houston. In 2010, Houston had 13 murders per 100K people compared to NYC's 7. Ultimately, tough-on-crime policies combined with the easy acquisition of guns by law-abiding citizens can only do so much. I think demographics and police coverage per square mile are very important. Blacks and Hispanics (90+% of NYC's violent crime) are 50% of NYC's population, and 60% of Houston's population. Police coverage in Houston is much sparser - 9 cops per sq mile compared to NYC's 113 cops per sq mile. Ultimately, I think these are the reasons why on a per capita basis, Houston has violent and non-violent crime rates that are double or more NYC's.