Posted on 08/09/2011 1:05:24 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Thanks SeekAndFind.
Unlike the nursing and journalism majors that slept through my basic statistics course, I actually learned something. Every single talking head on TV imputes an accuracy to polling that simply cannot be had by the math.
For convenience, polls are expressed as, say, 48% approval, +/-3 points. This does not mean that the central point of the range (48) is the likeliest answer. ALL points within the range (45-51 in this case) are EQUALLY likely. It only means the real answer is somewhere in that range (with a stated certainty, usually 95% for political polls).
If a poll like this one with a stated margin of +/- 3 moves by 3 points or less, nothing can be concluded. A “fall” of 3 points, say from 48 to 45 could actually represent a rise - if the actual answer in the first poll was 46 (equally likely within a 48 +/-3 range) and the second poll which showed 45 and the actual number was 47.
The increase in the sample size required to increase accuracy beyond +/-3 is usually cost and time prohibitive and is rarely used in political polls.
It would be the same as having a tape measure marked to 1/16” and needing to measure with an accuracy of 1/64.” You can strain and hold your tongue in various parts of your head, but the tool simply can’t do the job.
While I might be inclined to agree with you about journalism majors who don't know the difference between a bullet and a cartridge or a revolver and a semi, I do not agree with you about nursing students.
Nursing students I have dealt with have been smart and focused. Baccalaureate and graduate level students are some of the best students.
If it were Bush, the MSM will make sure his ratings dropped 12 points.
“I think Ras is a sellout. According to him, Obama has lost ZERO approval since December 2009. I find it impossible to believe and no other polling firm confirms his results.”
I get the Rasmussen polls daily. 0 has been all over the board but he is (as of today) -21 from favorable to unfav.
We need repeated “bloodbaths” in the next three or four elections to get a handle on things.
The fact is very few statistics students learn very much. It is far too difficult for most students.
How in the name of God can %45 of the people still be THAT f8cking stupid and vote for this guy ?
We can rid ourselves of Obama but what do we do with the millions of imbeciles who are brainwashed tools for the Dems and Liberals ? THAT is the real problem. We have a nation of morons and a generation of brainwashed lemmings.
“After listening to Obama’s speech yesterday, with his call to build more roads, bridges, and airports, Americans can deduce that Obama doesn’t have anything else but more gimmickry to offer.”
Obama forgot to include pyramids in that list of public works projects.
On the topic of pretty much anything that needs to be fixed in this country, Obama is on the exact wrong side of the issue.
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