I hope Lugar loses. I think he’s a lib.
It will be VERY hard to overcome the advantage an incumbent has when there is a Party Line Ballot in a primary unless the incumbent screws up seriously or the challenger is far ahead. The Party Bosses in each County are generally beholden to the incumbent and he/sje gets the Party Line. A lot of registered voters just go in and cast a primary ballot for the Pary Line Candidate.
HA! Its the local committeeman and county county chairs that want his ass out pronto. My mother is a committeeman in our county, and they all admit its time for new blood in his seat. Lugar will not be getting the support he's enjoyed before at the county level.