The problem with your theory is that there aren’t enough “alert voters” for Palin to win unfortunately - that’s how we got Obama as the president.
Wrong. It was a massive influx of “alert voters” that gave us the November 2010 shellacking. Obama’s only real hope is to cause massive disillusionment with Republicans, douse the Tea Party energy, and stuff the ballot box any way he can. But all that will fail. We are awake now, and we will not rest until the intruder has been ejected from our house. Here’s the real problem: Any GOP candidate can beat Obama, but only one GOP candidate has a history which suggests she will not only be a wise president, but will also be aggressive and successful in rooting out the insurgency that has a stranglehold on our executive branch. There is no point to winning in 2012 with anyone less than a proven reformer. Anything short of that is just a symbolic delay of game.