Posted on 07/13/2011 7:42:19 AM PDT by iowamark
For the next month, the 2012 Republican presidential race is all about Ames.
As in Ames, Iowa, home of Iowa State University and one of the quadrennial rites of passage for any Republican presidential contest: the Ames Straw Poll.
The poll, which will be held on Aug. 13, amounts to a fundraiser for the Iowa Republican Party. But since 1979 it has also been regarded as a key early test of strength in the Hawkeye State.
Although the highest recorded turnout for the event is just north of 23,000, in 1999, Ames has real consequences.
After a sixth-place finish there in 1999, former Tennessee governor Lamar Alexander ended his campaign. Eight years later, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney easily won the straw poll, but the story was a surprising second-place finish by little-known former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee...
Here are the Fix’s early Ames odds:
Michele Bachmann (3 to 1): With Romney taking a pass on the poll, the Minnesota congresswoman is the front-runner. Bachmann has three big things going for her: She’s a native Iowan, she’s beloved within social conservative circles, and she is likely to be free to spend as much money as she likes to organize supporters for the straw vote. What we don’t know: Can Bachmann, who announced her candidacy in mid-June, catch up organizationally in a relatively short period of time?
Tim Pawlenty (5 to 1): No candidate needs an Ames win like the former Minnesota governor...
Ron Paul (5 to 1)...
Herman Cain (20 to 1)...
Rick Santorum (25 to 1)...
Rick Perry (30 to 1)...
Thad McCotter (100 to 1)...
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
Get an Iowa college or state issued ID and you can vote. (No, I am not telling the Paulbots anything they don't already know.)
It will break Huntsman, Pawlenty, Johnson, and Roemer(sp) from Louisiana.
It is nothing more than a media event to bring a few dollars and attention to the media whore state of Iowa. No advese reflection on the many good conservatives who live there. They have to play the game. Those of us in the rest of the country do not.
It will break no one. It is a straw poll. It might reflect that some are struggling to gather support from party regulars. But the political writers hype it up every four years, because they have nothing else to write about.
It will break no one. It is a straw poll. It might reflect that some are struggling to gather support from party regulars. But the political writers hype it up every four years, because they have nothing else to write about.
It will break no one. It is a straw poll. It might reflect that some are struggling to gather support from party regulars. But the political writers hype it up every four years, because they have nothing else to write about.
>>>Come to Ames August 13 for the Straw Poll. It is an amazing political circus.
Circus indeed. Clowns show up, and a circus breaks out. Much like the typical city council meeting in Mason City... :)
The big problem is Iowa. Why they hold the first caucus every year is beyond me.
You would think the United States of America would have a better primary system.
Reagan would have won without Iowa. Iowa gave us Obama.
You aren’t paying attention to Paulbots.
Last time, they came, yelled, screamed, chanted, basically didn’t look properly Iowan. But the out of staters didn’t vote. It’s not easy to accomplish.
This time, the message that Ron Paul supporters are hearing is “don’t come to Iowa”. The only real exception is for people who the Iowa campaign has approved. And that category is normal, attractive young women.
The Ron Paul campaign is doing a lot of work on traditional methods. The grassroots is developing exciting new methods to leverage new technologies to id supporters. One guy is spending less than $2 to ID supporters. He id’d over 400 supporters himself yesterday.
That’s what Ron Paul is up to in Iowa, while keeping away the misbehaving out of state supporters.
Exactly.
The only thing these polls show is which candidate has the biggest spam-monkey cult.
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