Posted on 07/05/2011 11:51:09 AM PDT by smoothsailing
Andrea Vasquez
July 5, 2011
...Excerpt...
A forecasting model called PollyVote combines several index models for a well-rounded approach to predicting the next U.S. president. One of the models used in PollyVote is a biographical index, called PollyBio, that ranks candidates based on 59 biographical characteristics such as age, home state and athleticism.
.....
When they tested PollyBio on the past 29 presidential elections – from 1896 to 2008 – the forecast matched the actual outcome 27 times. The two it missed: Jimmy Carter’s 1976 election and Bill Clinton’s 1992 election.
.....
Perry was the only one among 14 GOP candidates to come out ahead of Obama. Compared side-by-side on the PollyVote bio index, Perry came out with 21 points to Obama’s 20, translating to 50.3 percent of votes for Perry...
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.chron.com ...
There is no such thing as a “non-partisan” computer.
It is programmed by humans, therefore it has bias.
i wonder if the forecasting software is in any way similar to that ‘proving’ global warming???
Yeah, and Jimmy Carter’s second term was a shoo-in, too. :)
Just like the computer models that “prove” global warming can’t even predict today’s climate when fed historical clmate data.
I am not sold on the methodology but the concept is interesting.
Rick Perry:
In bed with the Bilderbergers.
For the Trans-Texas Corridor.
For amnesty.
For government forcing little girls to take Gardisil.
Supported Rudy Giuliani in 2008.
Runs as a conservative but governs as a big-government centrist.
Perry would be better than 0bozo, but still would be a fiscal disaster and being a one-world enthusiast is an anathema to American sovereignty.
The computer is made by Rhino-Tec
tiny words at bottom of results printout.
This Puterized poll paid for by RE-Elect Obama Campaign
How did William McKinley make out? Hmmmm.
Perry is picking the right time to get into the race. Everyone else has totally committed their concepts of “what I’m going to do”.....”unless I change my mind”.
No computer can predict the mood of the country. Computers can only predict based on mostly physical characteristics. I bet this is wrong. Since Perry isn’t (yet?) running I guess according to this computer 0bam’s getting 4 more years? Sure. I’ve not seen the mood of the country like this since Jimmy Carter, except it’s worse now. The people are NOT going to elect a milquetoast but someone with fire in their belly.
Cindie
A “non-partisan” computer? The very concept is false on its face. Computers have to be programmed by humans, who are not non-partisan.
This trash ought to be deleted and re-posted on DU.
You make a good point, the computer used in this study has a built in bias against bald people! :)
Lets have at it and get the job done!
We NEED an (R) to survive as a nation after all.
Nothing else can save us.
Here’s a direct link to the actual computer model and forecast...
Models that are tested only with historical data are close to worthless.
Bias, sure, but not necessarily partisan bias.
Not sure how good a model it can be with so many variables and so few data points.
So is this one of those things that’s kind of like the climate change models or should I just start mourning the loss of my country now since I’m not sure Perry can make it through the primaries? If only a RINO (going on the word of Texans here), Mitt has better name recognition. And evidently Perry just barely won his reelection in a week field thanks to help from people like SP.
How does it do on predicting primaries? Last time conservatives didn’t have a real choice. I keep thinking we have a real shot this time. Oh well.
Cindie
It certainly missed on two liars, both Democrats (Carter & Clinton).
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