Weekly jobless claims “unexpectedly” rise again? (Status Quo. figures remain above 400K for 8 Weeks)

Hotair ^ | 06/09/2011 | Ed Morrissey

[SeekAndFind]

For the eighth week in a row, the number of initial jobless claims remained in the 420K range, according to the Department of Labor’s report today. Last week saw a slight increase of just 1,000 to the number of new claims from the previous week, which got revised upward by 4,000 from the previous week’s initial report:

In the week ending June 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 427,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 426,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 426,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.9 percent for the week ending May 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 28 was 3,676,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,747,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,719,250, a decrease of 29,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,748,250.

This puts the last two weeks at more or less the same level as the weeks before. The 420-430K level appears to be the “new normal” for 2011, a little below the 440-460K level of 2010 but above the 380K range we saw in the first quarter of this year. Whatever initially pushed the claim levels upward in April was not a fluke, but instead a real retreat on job creation in the economy.

The only people surprised by what is essentially a status-quo report are the economists at Reuters, where they break out the U word again … and again … and again (via Steve Eggleston):

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, according to a report on Thursday that could reinforce fears the labor market recovery has stalled.

Initial claims for state jobless benefits increased 1,000 to 427,000, the Labor Department said. However, economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims dropping to 415,000 from a previously reported count of 422,000.

Exactly what drove them to predict a drop in the jobless-claims rate? The only reason I can think that one could have “expected” a drop in claims is because the week in question had a major holiday (Memorial Day), which tends to suppress claims. It’s worth considering that next week may actually be worse for that reason.

However, if Reuters’ Wizengamot expected a drop for economic reasons, I’d really like to know what those were. There hasn’t been a positive economic indicator for weeks, inventories are at record levels, and gas prices are sapping discretionary income. What positive news would have boosted hiring, as Reuters’ economists expected?

Or, for that matter, Bloomberg’s?

U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week, a sign that the labor market is struggling to gain traction.

Jobless claims increased by 1,000 to 427,000 in the week ended June 4, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a drop in claims to 419,000, according to the median forecast. The number of people on unemployment benefit rolls and those receiving extended payments decreased. …

The median forecast was based on a survey of 49 economists. Estimates ranged from 400,000 to 430,000. The Labor Department revised the prior week’s figure to 426,000 from the 422,000 initially reported.

Seriously, fellas. Time to find new economists.

[Nick Danger]

Headline in November, 2012: Obama Unexpectedly Loses by Landslide

[SteveH]

unexpected (my @$$)

:-(

[Natural Law]

I think I’ve figured out the unemployment problem. Apparently to Democrats “Job” is a just a suffix.

[SMARTY]

What good is a President form whome EVERYTHING is unexpected??

[SteveH]

Seriously, fellas. Time to find new economists.

Unexpected.

Unexpected, unexpected, unexpected.

Unexpected!!

Hey guys, if you need an economist, I am good ("UNEXPECTED!!" --see??), and I am available.

[RnMomof7]

I often find myself very puzzled by the response of BOTH parties and the talking heads..

They seem astonished that this “recession” isn’t ending as the previous ones.. Ohh they both have all kind of “ideas “... its the regulations on businesses , its “uncertainty “ in the tax” structure” on and on they go.

No one is willing to speak about the elephant in the room.

In previous recessions when the demand returned the people in that industry were “called back” to work

Today there is no more plants to be “called back to.

The loss of work here is not “temporary” those plants are closed and the new workers are in 3rd world countries.. not only do they have less restrictions they also have people that do not expect things like week ends off..40 hours week, 8 hour days ..and they will do this for ten dollars a day

Gone is the furniture industry from the south, gone are the garment factories, gone are the steel companies, and the new auto plants are no longer built here.. it is almost impossible to find anything that is made 100% here.. Outsourcing is so accepted that gone now are many white collar jobs ...like engineering and Computer support..

So unlike previous recessions there is no place for them to go except Burger King or welfare..

This my friends is the new “normal” we are headed into a 3rd world culture of consumers..of decreases income, part time jobs and government handouts..

No one can stop this train..and it is time for someone to speak the truth..

As unpopular as it might be the only answer is import taxes to pay for all the needed government support and to level the playing field.. so some of those industries would find it profitable to come back here and do some production

[donozark]

Things are improving. Obi said so.

Maybe he was talking about his golf game?

[Bean Counter]

What I want to know is who these “experts” are that are continually surprised that their expectations are wrong yet again??

Speaking of “experts”, the only remaining member of Premier Hussein’s “A” Economic Team is Tim Geithner, and as far as I can tell there is no “B” Team....so who is running the show??

[BobP]

The anomaly of the current recession is the anomaly of Barak Obama's political philosophy and worldview.

It's all about punishing successful people. The left thinks profits are evil. Now the administration is castigating business because they are not investing money in this economy. With Obama declaring that businesses should not make money, what does he expect?

Obama never intended to 'deliver.' Obama intended to redistribute wealth. 45% of the population is worthless, sitting around with their hands out and see no reason why they shouldn't have a big fat drumstick off of that golden goose. These lazy, immoral, irresponsible loafers will vote for Dems again and again as long as they're promised more and greater handouts.

There is something fundamentally wrong with too many Americans to turn things around without a long, hard fought fight. As long as the media and educational institutions still have influence, it's going to be near impossible to get this country back on the right path. We need strong conservative leadership, but who will bring it? And will it be enough?

The loony Europeans are running madly away from what this committed crew is running toward. It's as if they can't wait to jump in the boiling water.

Obama - We're Not Bankrupting the Country Fast Enough

[SeekAndFind]

RE: What I want to know is who these “experts” are that are continually surprised that their expectations are wrong yet again??

____________________________________________________________________

Well, what I want to understand is how they come up with these jobless and jobs created figures.

If the Weekly INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS is averagin 420,000 does that not mean that we are LAYING OFF PEOPLE at the rate of 420,000 X 4 = 1.68 Million EVERY MONTH ?

But they tell us that 54,000 jobs were CREATED last month ( Month of May ).

What does that mean ?

Does it mean we are short 1,6746,000 ( which is 1.68 Million - 54,0000 ) jobs?

Or does it mean we have added so many jobs to offset the initial jobless claims that ON THE NET, we created 54,000 jobs ( which means 1,680,0000 + 54,000 = 1,734,000 )?

Does this mean that all in all for last month, 1,734,000 people found jobs? (i.e., 1,680,000 + 54,0000 = 1,734,000 )

These figures they put out have never made sense to me.

[Covenantor]

It’s just white collar scam artists playing three card monte with spread sheets.

[griswold3]

Agreed.
53% of Americans were warned by the ‘Joe the Plumber’ incident of Obama’s intentions. I’m just surprised that those that supported Obama thought it would turn out differently.
This is the new normal, a trend has been set. It is going to be nearly impossible to turn it around.
Consider the amount of work from the productive/achievers that will be necessary to pay for this excursion by ‘Progressives’. I, for one, have no intentions to work harder for less.
As Obama’s solicitor general said, ‘Don’t like the mandate, earn less.’ I’m fine with that!

[gleeaikin]

Unemployment and home foreclosures march hand in hand. Here is a link on new government action to put pressure on banks to actually use some of that money we have given them to help people keep their homes.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-fees-to-three-big-banks-are-stopped-2011-06-09?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

[pepsi_junkie]

As unpopular as it might be the only answer is import taxes to pay for all the needed government support and to level the playing field.. so some of those industries would find it profitable to come back here and do some production

That was Hoover's solution to the great depression too. Different times indeed, but igniting a trade war doesn't seem the best path ahead to me.

[Bean Counter]

yep...it doesn’t make much sense to me either...

[RnMomof7]

So how do you suggest bring industry back??

[pepsi_junkie]

So how do you suggest bring industry back??

How about we start with helping businesses get competitive by cutting taxes and removing punishing regulations from them as our first choice? Seems to be working in Texas, why not other states? Investors will not create new businesses when they don't know if they can ever make any money because of the threat of more regulation, cap and trade energy punishment, and/or crushing taxes. And so they don't and nobody gets that job that would have been created.