Posted on 05/26/2011 6:49:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
PRINCETON, NJ -- Mitt Romney (17%) and Sarah Palin (15%) now lead a smaller field of potential Republican presidential candidates in rank-and-file Republicans' preferences for the party's 2012 nominee. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain essentially tie for third, with Cain registering 8% support in his initial inclusion in Gallup "trial heat" polling. Notably, 22% of Republicans do not have a preference at this point.
The May 20-24 poll is the first update of Republican nomination preferences after a recent flurry of activity in the race for the 2012 nomination, with several formally declaring their presidential candidacies, including Paul, Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, and Cain. Perhaps as significant were the decisions by Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and Mitch Daniels to forgo the race. In Gallup's April update, Huckabee and Trump were the co-leaders, with Huckabee placing first in the other Gallup updates this year.
Of the 10 candidates included in the newly reduced list, 7 have either officially announced their candidacies or established exploratory committees. Jon Huntsman and Michele Bachmann are nearing decisions and are expected to get in the race, while Palin's status as a candidate is less certain.
Re-allocating Palin supporters' votes to the candidate who is their second choice gives a sense of where current preferences would stand without Palin in the mix. Under this scenario, Romney leads with 19%, followed by Gingrich and Paul with 12% each.
Romney's and Palin's status at the top of the field is owing in large part to their high name identification among rank-and-file Republicans. Gingrich and Paul are also well-known among the party base. Cain, on the other hand, is far less well-known, but he has generated a strong positive reaction among those who do know him, which allows him to place ahead of slightly better-known candidates
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
Once Palin announces, it will ultimately wind up to be a two person race (Romney / Palin).
And then the only question remaining is WHO will Palin pick for the Veep spot.
Gallup finally polled potential GOP primary voters on their candidate preferences after exits from the race by Mike Huckabee, Donald Trump, and Mitch Daniels, and their support went to … everyone. Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin moved into the top two slots, but almost everyone picked up a little support. The field and the distance between the candidates hardly budged:
Mitt Romney (17%) and Sarah Palin (15%) now lead a smaller field of potential Republican presidential candidates in rank-and-file Republicans’ preferences for the party’s 2012 nominee. Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain essentially tie for third, with Cain registering 8% support in his initial inclusion in Gallup “trial heat” polling. Notably, 22% of Republicans do not have a preference at this point.
Most of the candidates on their list have formally declared either a candidacy or an exploratory committee except for Palin. Gallup re-allocates her supporters based on their second-place preferences and finds that … nothing much changes then, either:
Re-allocating Palin supporters’ votes to the candidate who is their second choice gives a sense of where current preferences would stand without Palin in the mix. Under this scenario, Romney leads with 19%, followed by Gingrich and Paul with 12% each.
Their previous poll on the GOP nomination race came more than a month ago. In it, Huckabee and Trump led with 16% each and Mitch Daniels had 3% support, adding up to 35% of respondents in April. With the departure of these three candidates, Romney picked up one point, Palin five points, Ron Paul four points, Newt Gingrich three points, and another three points for Tim Pawlenty. The only real significant move came from Herman Cain, from immeasurably small to 8%.
Taking Palin out produces similar results. Romney, Gingrich, Paul, and Bachmann gain two points each, Pawlenty gets one, and Cain doesn’t budge. Neither of these moves are gamechangers, except that Huckabee’s departure puts Romney and Palin in the same virtual tie as a month ago, only this time at the top of the list.
There is still plenty of room in this race for another candidate. The biggest gain in this poll besides Herman Cain’s eight-point jump was in None/No Opinion, which went from 14% to 22%. That outstrips all of the other candidates in the field, giving the impression that none of the current potential candidates has captured the imagination of primary voters at this time.
http://conservatives4palin.com/2011/05/pre-announcement-checklist-for-ordinary-barbarians.html
Pre-announcement check list for barbarians!
Sarah is running!
We’re going to lose...we need a fresh face....if it’s Romney, I’m not voting.
Giuliani...whose numbers will he raid? I’m guessing Romney’s.
Dear Fawn: Do not fear. Sarah is coming in to save the day, and save us from dems and the elites and the horrid Bambi administration.
“And then the only question remaining is WHO will Palin pick for the Veep spot.”
MICHELE BACHMANN, OF COURSE!
PALIN/BACHMANN 2012!
Is RuPaul the only veteran running?
It won’t be Bachmann. Back in January, her staff members showed up in South Carolina and Iowa and began bad-mouthing Sarah while playing up their boss lady. Word got out fast, and it’s why so many of Palin supporters no longer trust MB.
Iowa and New Hampshire polls are the only one that matter. Unfortunately. And they don’t mean much at this point.
Romney won’t be much of a factor in IA. And Palin vs. Mitt in New Hampshire leaves room for another candidate there. Either Giuliani or Huntsman.
I’m betting Rubio.
RE: No pick up Cain as VP and have Bachmann take over as Speaker.
All these people have one weakness —— NO FOREIGN POLICY EXPERIENCE. Whoever wins the GOp nomination should pick John Bolton as running mate.
Shame two little states have such magnitude over the over ones.
What a cop out. Not voting is stupid. I don't like Romney much at all, but if Mitt is the nominee he is still a heck of a lot better than Hussein.
Yup, Rubio will get the VP nod pretty much no matter who our nominee is. The potential for him to pick up latino/hispanic votes and cut into the Democrats lead with that voting block is too good to pass up.
As much as a I admire Rubio, he isn’t a Natural Born Citizen.
They can’t squawk that with Bammers daddy being a subject of the queen.
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