[Note: above is clickable to NWS Storm Prediction Center]
Posted on 05/24/2011 6:44:43 AM PDT by FourPeas
[Note: above is clickable to NWS Storm Prediction Center]
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 240919 ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-241800-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0419 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
...TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTH TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SURROUNDING THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES.
A STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN DESERTS WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...BEFORE REACHING THE OZARKS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OZARKS...BENEATH UNUSUALLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE JET STREAM.
SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN AN ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AS DAYTIME HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW.
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO ASSUME STRONG...SUSTAINED ROTATION...AND TO PRODUCE POSSIBLY VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE / DEVELOP GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
THE STORMS LIKELY WILL ORGANIZE INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND THIS EVENING...EXTENDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..CORFIDI.. 05/24/2011
$$
My apologies for the all caps; that's the way it comes from NWS.
All quiet here in southern Michigan today but we’ve had rain for 19 of the past 23 days.
Thankfully, by Wednesday the risk is down to moderate (so far). However, by Wednesday the weather’s also over an area of the Mississippi that REALLY doesn’t need any more water, especially since the upstream rivers have been getting lots of rain this past week. Given that the upstreams in Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, etc are all experiencing flooding, it’s only going to get worse in the Mississippi.
This is nonstop. What the hell is with all these tornadoes and not in ‘Tornado Alley’ either. This is like the end of times, has it ever been this bad?
is there anything new in the atmosphere that would be acting in the capacity of seeding clouds?
It's not that atypical, there have always been occasional bad years like this one. Consider back in the day, before we had forecasting and tracking tools, there were thousands of tornadoes, that nobody even knew about because they never hit any buildings.
I’d consider Kansas and Oklahoma Tornado Alley, and Joplin’s so close that even if Missouri isn’t officially “in”, it’s close enough.
About five years ago, we had a similar spring around here. About once a week we’d end up in the storm shelter. We had to replace the siding on one side of house twice after it was peppered by hail.
Yes...in the early to mid 70s I remember spending several April and May Days hovered around the 900 lbs sony tv with 4 stations.
And while big tornadoes are not an every-year occurrence in Mississippi and Alabama, they’re by no means unheard of. The outbreak that tore up those states was, however, exceptional in terms of just how many EF3+ tornadoes there were, and for a death toll of around 330, which is bigger than the infamous 1974 Super Tuesday outbreak. So this spring, we’ve had the “worst” tornado outbreak in almost 40 years, and one of the deadliest single tornadoes in at least that long (Joplin). And that’s not even counting the North Carolina tornadoes that killed over 20 people a few weeks before the MS/AL storms.
}:-)4
Here in PA, I’m starting to think of cold gray damp weather as the new normal. Worst spring I ever saw. :(
Not me.
Don’t the tornadoes usualy start a little east of tornado alley before settling in to the west later in the season?
I heard a weather guy saying that same thing just the other day on TV. I guess you either gotta out run it or be in a deep bunker or missle silo to keep from getting sucked out.
Pikers. :) We've had rain on 41 out of the past 46 days. Year to date precipitation is 9 inches over normal, and a fraction of the corn crop has been planted.
People are turning into raving lunatics. Or is that just me?
Meteorologists tend to shout when they get excited.
(Not excited happy, mind you. They don’t like the widespread death and destruction.)
Anyway, do you have a link to that first map, the one that’s looping? That’s a great map.
Prayers up for protection of people and property.
Actually, it's more of a south to north movement - the tornadoes early in the season tend to strike in the south and the threat migrates north as we move into May and June. The difference this year is that the La Nina spring has kept Texas and Oklahoma below normal for outbreaks by moving storm systems farther north and east.
Our local NWS office is hinting of a major pattern change starting next week, which should finally allow Ohio to dry out.
OMG ..... the sky is falling.
Actually the end of time has been postponed until October 21 or is it 2012.
Bump for later watching.
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