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The Message Man : Experts weigh in on Newt Gingrich's chances of winning the GOP nomination.
National Review ^ | 05/12/2011 | Katrina Trinko

Posted on 05/12/2011 7:14:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Everyone knows Newt Gingrich’s liabilities. The question as he embarks on his presidential run is whether he can overcome them with his undeniable talent for formulating and communicating a compelling policy message.

“The secret to winning the Republican nomination is going to be talking about the future and ideas and solutions. That’s something Newt’s been doing for 15 years, so as long as he can be future-oriented, I think he has a very good chance of winning the nomination,” says GOP strategist Scott Reed.

“This race is wide open,” says Greg Mueller, a Republican strategist and president of CRC Public Relations. “There’s no clear frontrunner. You take somebody with Newt’s intellectual ability on the issues, his political savvy, and put him in the debates and out on the campaign trail, and if he works real hard in the early states, I think you have to consider him a serious candidate.”

Gingrich has a penchant for making grand statements on the nation’s challenges. With the stakes so high, Gingrich’s sweeping pronouncements on the historical moment may resonate.

“I think that he’s got a sense of history about him that enables him to articulate a message with a lot of depth,” says Vin Weber, a former congressman who worked with Gingrich in the House. “I think right now Republicans are looking to put this election in context. They feel a full, strong historic sense of the country being at a crossroads. I think Newt’s always really been able to frame issues in their broader context better than most and he will be an important voice in this campaign for that reason.”

Then, there are the debates. “He would probably shine in that environment. He’ll earn a lot of applause,” comments Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Republican pollster David Winston thinks Gingrich will benefit as the primary elections near, and voters shift from focusing on personality to focusing on policy. “Where the electorate is actually plays to his strengths. Given their focus on what’s occurring in this country and their concerns, they want to hear from candidates how they’d solve these problems. That goes directly to his strengths,” he says, adding that voters will ultimately consider personality a “secondary” factor in their decision about which candidate to support.

Gingrich must hope so. He’s already struggled to live down his three marriages and past infidelity. On the political side, former enthusiasms will haunt him — for example, shooting a commercial with House minority leader Nancy Pelosi touting the need to address climate change, and his support for ethanol subsidies. He has the disadvantage of being a longtime Washington player at a time when the Republican electorate wants someone new and fresh.

“Gingrich has been on the public radar screen for close to 20 years,” Sabato notes. “People have a strong sense of him.” And not necessarily to the good: Sabato points out that polls consistently give Gingrich higher unfavorables than favorables.

Aside from reframing his past, Gingrich will also have to temper his inclination to react — and overreact — to every event. “Newt’s biggest challenge will be message discipline — staying focused on a campaign message and not just reacting to the daily news,” says one GOP strategist. “Newt is always the smartest guy in the room, but he doesn’t need to remind everybody of that every day.”

Gingrich enters the race with plenty of baggage, despite his status as an elder statesman of the party and his undoubted brilliance. “You go back to Newt [in] 1994, when nobody thought Republicans had a chance of winning the House. He fundamentally changed the direction of the country,” Winston points out. “This is a person who has proved pundits wrong before.”

He’ll have to do so again, and if he does, it will likely be a triumph of his message over all else.

— Katrina Trinko is an NRO staff reporter.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: fung; newtgingrich; potus
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1 posted on 05/12/2011 7:14:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

To the headline: zero.


2 posted on 05/12/2011 7:15:22 AM PDT by svcw (Non forgiveness is like holding a hot coal thinking the other person will be blistered)
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To: SeekAndFind
Newt had his chance, and he pissed it away.

FUNG.

3 posted on 05/12/2011 7:17:07 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Islamophobia: The fear of offending Muslims because they are prone to violence.)
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To: SeekAndFind
He’s already struggled to live down his three marriages and past infidelity

He did it for the good of the country ... so all is forgiven. [/s]


4 posted on 05/12/2011 7:19:01 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: SeekAndFind

Gingrich is a criminal narcissist. He only thinks about himself and cares not for the survival of the nation. He is a wuss.

We had contract of America from him, fully knowing he would not enforce it and do his part for it, he engaged people to vote for him, premeditatively. Now he talks global warming and big government and then flip flops around.

IF there is one thing worse than a gay liberal, it’s a gay conservative fascist. They are full of it and completely compromised in their own ideals of “looking good and conservative on the one hand” and yet going into the cookie jar and indulging like some swine artist.


5 posted on 05/12/2011 7:19:32 AM PDT by JudgemAll (Democrates Fed. job-security Whorocracy & hate:hypocrites must be gay like us or be tested/crucified)
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To: JudgemAll

“Gingrich is a criminal narcissist”

Well, I don’t know about criminal.


6 posted on 05/12/2011 7:21:07 AM PDT by Tublecane
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To: SeekAndFind

The race IS “wide open” but Gingrich’s chances are slim and none. Same as Romney’s.


7 posted on 05/12/2011 7:21:48 AM PDT by yldstrk (My heroes have always been cowboys)
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To: SeekAndFind

Newt was my rep when he was Speaker. He can be very intelligent and provide some excellent ideas. He was the primary architect of the GOP victory in ‘94. Unfortunately, he has also shown that he has RINO blood in him. Whomever the GOP candidate is, I will support them against the foreign uruper, no matter how much I may dislike them. A caretaker RINO is far better than a proven marxist who has designs on becoming a dictator and hates this Country.


8 posted on 05/12/2011 7:22:52 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Psalm 109:8 Let his days be few and let another take his office. - Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin)
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To: SeekAndFind
Newt has his problems. I used to love Newt. Now, not so much. I don't care about his divorces. My problem is WHICH Newt will show up on any given issue. The Conservative Newt? I LOVE that guy. The reach across the aisle Newt? NO WAY. The sit on a couch with Nancy Pelosi Newt? NO WAY. The CFR Newt? The One World Order Newt?

Did I say he has “problems”?

9 posted on 05/12/2011 7:22:54 AM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: faucetman

I’m with you......Newt and his other women chaps me.....I’ll never get over his being by Peeloosley’s side discussing climate change and Hellary’s side discussing gooberment health care. Does he have no shame???? :)


10 posted on 05/12/2011 7:28:56 AM PDT by Dawgreg (Happiness is not having what you want, but wanting what you have.)
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To: Tublecane

I have always thought that poor Newt suffers from the “Little Man Syndrome”.


11 posted on 05/12/2011 7:29:53 AM PDT by basil (It's time to rid the country of "gun free zones" aka "Killing Fields")
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To: JudgemAll

“Gingrich is a criminal narcissist. He only thinks about himself and cares not for the survival of the nation.”

I couldn’t agree more.

Narcissism must be a very debilitating disorder. How else can you explain a man as seemingly intelligent as Newt Gingrich not seeing how futile his run for the presidency will be? Perhaps he so desperately needs to be in the spotlight and feel relevant that he’ll run a doomed campaign merely to get his fix?


12 posted on 05/12/2011 7:30:07 AM PDT by brownsfan (I miss the America I grew up in.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think Gingrich, like many before him, is running for a cabinet post. In his case, *any* cabinet post. He’s been twiddling his thumbs for a while and wants back into the game. But he brings nothing to the table.

The next Republican president should make him the ambassador to France. Especially if Marine Le Pen becomes prime minister.


13 posted on 05/12/2011 7:30:12 AM PDT by yefragetuwrabrumuy
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To: yldstrk

Newt has good ideas....impressive ideas but could he be trusted to stay away from the dark side? I dunno.....and I don’t think I could take 4 or 8 years of hearing “Clista and I”.....good grief! :(


14 posted on 05/12/2011 7:30:50 AM PDT by Dawgreg (Happiness is not having what you want, but wanting what you have.)
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To: SeekAndFind
If not Gingrich, who? Who else is more electable and more conservative? Who else has the experience and the depth to lead the country to a balanced budget? The next president will be a crisis manager and we really need someone with the proven breadth of experience to extricate us from our looming crisis. Who else is without baggage?

It does no good to denigrate Newt Gingrich and then march away in self-righteous anger, we must actually select someone better. It is easy to run him down but not so easy to defend another candidate by comparison.


15 posted on 05/12/2011 7:33:00 AM PDT by nathanbedford ("Attack, repeat, attack!" Bull Halsey)
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To: yefragetuwrabrumuy

RE: I think Gingrich, like many before him, is running for a cabinet post. In his case, *any* cabinet post.

OK, put him in charge of the budget (OMB). That’ll keep him out of social issues which will make his personal life a liability.


16 posted on 05/12/2011 7:34:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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To: SeekAndFind

17 posted on 05/12/2011 7:34:53 AM PDT by Menehune56 ("Let them hate so long as they fear" (Oderint Dum Metuant), Lucius Accius, (170 BC - 86 BC))
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To: nathanbedford

Allen West is my first choice. I would like to vote for Sarah but I don’t think she will run. Of course, West said he won’t run either. We probably won’t have a strong candidate - again.


18 posted on 05/12/2011 7:38:34 AM PDT by ilovesarah2012
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To: SeekAndFind

It is only fair that ANY/ALL of Newt’s personal/marital issues be ignored in assessing HIS chances. Let’s look at professional abilities and experience ONLY!

After all ... the last two Democratic presidents have combined personal and social flaws and objectionable associations enough (and all the bull s^%$ lying and white-wash that go with it) which should have/but didn’t keep THEM out of the running with ANY truly wholesome and clean living voter base.

The Liberal voter base is NOT wholesome and clean living... or Billy Boy and “O” would never have been considered much less nominated and ELECTED!

Conservatives are far from squeaky clean themselves and MUST cease in their infantile expectation of personal faultlessness in likely candidates (the expectation of which Liberals themselves have long since abandoned-WITH success). If Conservatives play this game and insist on immaculate personalities and tidy personal histories, while Liberals laugh in their sleeves, it will be donkeys’ years before another Conservative is in the WH!


19 posted on 05/12/2011 7:48:41 AM PDT by SMARTY (Conforming to non-conformity is conforming just the same.)
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To: SMARTY

RE: Conservatives are far from squeaky clean themselves and MUST cease in their infantile expectation of personal faultlessness in likely candidates


Just a question -— why can’t we have someone who is realtively squeaky clean in his personal life AND competent on the issues? (I’m not talking about saintliness, I’m talking about someone who at least does not cheat on his/her spouse).

Is such a person such a rare bird nowadays that we have to settle for this now?


20 posted on 05/12/2011 7:51:36 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (u)
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