Kaine, Allen tied in 2012 Senate matchup, Post poll shows

The Washington Post ^ | May 7, 2011 | Ben Pershing and Peyton M. Craighill

[SuperLuminal]

Tied...or even “close” guarantees marxist victory...The dead, inmates, and illegals will not be denied!

[Recovering_Democrat]

Remind everyone of the truth: Kaine is a Hussein Cultist. That should take him down in Virginia to about 15% of the vote.

[muawiyah]

Kaine is not in good stead with the Democrat ran and file. As DNC chairman he delivered the most massive Republican victory seen in this country in the last 3/4 of a century.

They won't forget.

[tflabo]

Yeh.. Northern Va. has plenty of liberals be it natives, transplants or foreigners. Its gonna be a fight and the race could be separated by only 1-2 percentage points in the end.

[oldbill]

The Washington Post typically oversamples democrats. This poll shows a mirror image of voter sentiment on the democrat/Republican voters, 86-10 and 10-85, with independents in favor of Allen 49-39. http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/politics/virginia-senate-2012-an-early-look/2011/05/07/AF9j97LG_graphic.html

With such an overwhelming independent vote on Allen’s side, and a mirror-image breakout on the democrat/Republican vote, the only way you could end up with a 46-46 tie is if you counted more democrats to balance out the independents.

The Post polls usually do this in Virginia elections. The Republican in early polls always shows up badly because of the democrat weighting. They hope to create a bandwagon effect for the democrat and demoralize the Republican base.

[Jane Austen]

I agree. I should have said “far worse.”

[AuH2ORepublican]

I was about to say the same thing.

But if Allen is tied with Kaine at 46% among registered voters, Allen’s probably up by only like 49%-43% among likely voters. Allen can’t afford to get cocky in this race.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I just saw that the Washington Post used the same sample of registered voters for its Allen-Kaine poll as for its presidential-race poll that (risibly) has Obama thumping all Republican candidates: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_050042011_MON.html

So, among likely voters, Allen is probably up by more than the 6% I estimated.

[katiedidit1]

not to mention Portsmouth, Norfolk, Suffolk..here’s hoping the grassroots voter show up in large numbers. Also..Richmond?

[katiedidit1]

not to mention Portsmouth, Norfolk, Suffolk..here’s hoping the grassroots voter show up in large numbers. Also..Richmond?