The Road to 2012... With Graphs.

[Minus_The_Bear]

Popular Vote:



Popular Vote:

2008 Results:



2010 Census Results:


Key States 2004



Key States 2008



Resource List

Electoral Maps:

• 270toWin - build your own 2012 map based on the 2010 census.
• Election Projection - Presidential, Senatorial, Gubernatorial, & House race projections all covered by a conservative.
• Electoral-Vote.com
• Real Clear Politics MapUS Election Atlas
• Larry Sabato's Map

Polling

• Gallup
• RealClearPolitics Poll Averages
• Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll
• Cook Political Report

Organization...TEA Party / 912 Group / Smart Girl Politics. etc.

• TEA Party Groups - A Master List of TEA party groups. Find one close to you.
• 912 Groups - A Master List of 912 groups. Find one close to you.
• Freedom Connector - FreedomConnector is a fast & simple way to find conservatives and liberty-minded individuals in your area. It makes it easy to plan events, start a local organization, & recruit new members.
• Smart Girl Politics Regional & State Groups - Smart Girl Politics is non-profit organization for conservative women activists.

[Minus_The_Bear]

1. If you look at the Popular Vote chart you can see that conservative turnout dropped off for McCain in 2008 compared to Bush in 2004. Also, notice how Perot swung both '90s races to Clinton with his 3rd party campaigns.

2. Obama can win easily if we nominate the wrong person OR we do not focus on the right states.

3. Why Nebraska? They split an electoral vote to Obama in 2008 and might again in 2012.

Create your own electoral map at 270towin.com

[warchild9]

One can really see the affects of the flood of Yankee bedwetters here in NC. Fortunately, natives appear to be waking up a little...we’ve got a leftist governor and an embarassment of a Senator to get rid of next year.

[ComputerGuy]

Sadly, Ms Hagen isn’t up for re-election until 2014.

[Lazlo in PA]

I think Sabatos map is off. Obummer is doing terrible in PA poll wise. So is Casey. We just had a massive sweep of GOP officials on all levels in '10. The Rat machine is finished now that Fast Eddie is gone. I also question OH as a tossup. That does not seem likely.

[Minus_The_Bear]

I doubt Sabato's map as well... but PA will go to Obama.

Can the rest of the state really overcome Philly?

[Diogenesis]

IF Romney and his backstabbing, child-attacking
team had left Gov. Palin and her children alone,
then the GOP would have won.

[Lazlo in PA]

Can the rest of the state really overcome Philly?

Philthy and Pitt can be overcome when Conservatives get off their rumps and vote. Look at what Toomey did last go round. The latest polls show Obummer 53% disprove/ 42 approve. That is huge. Plus with the GOP sweep, generations of Rats pols were thrown out of office. Obummer will not have the luxury of the machine Rendell controlled. We also have a pretty strong Tea Party now in PA. That will help the GOP candidate if they are a fiscal Conservative.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theticket/20110428/el_yblog_theticket/obama-approval-low-in-pennsylvania-nevada

[warchild9]

Bev is probably toast. That’ll be a good thing.

And thank you for your service. My daddy did three tours in VN—Force Recon. He’s a very bad dude and I mean that in a good way.

[PA Engineer]

Philthy and Pitt can be overcome when Conservatives get off their rumps and vote.

I still worry about Philthydelphia. I watched a GOP lead disappear magically, the last two POTUS elections when Philthy was counted. Amazingly, they are always the last tallied and ended up with a 102% and 98% voter turnout respectively. The GOP PA congress needs to tighten up the laws on polling places now! No more polling in bars, basements and union halls for a start. Finally, they need to remove the cemetery census from the voter registration lists.

[sgtyork]

Wisconsin should also show in the toss up column. We voted in a Republican Assembly - Senate - Governor and (#*# canned Russ Feingold. Right after we pass a budget, we will take up election reforms (voter id, residency, etc) and after that Democrats won’t consistently win by 10,000 fraudulent votes.

[Minus_The_Bear]

I thought about including Wisconsin in the graphs... but the polling numbers so far don't show it.

Wisconsin is like Pennsylvania; comes close but can't make up for the heavily Democrat urban centers.

Maybe the recent Prosser election & union battle can counter act that.

[Minus_The_Bear]

[WOSG]

Great map. All the GOP has to do is win all the R-leaners and all the tossups and we win.

VA a ‘tossup’.... roflmao - GOP will sweep that one.
Same with IN, NC, and OH. lean R actually ... and CO and FL are winnable.

The math looks good.

Even PA, WI and MI will be in play if we have the right race/candidate.

[ri4dc]

I agree that Nebraska and / or Maine split electors could decide this election.
The nightmare scenario is a tie at 269.

What happens if: ?
DEMS
CA 55
CO 9
CT 7
DC 3
DE 3
FL 29
HI 4
IL 20
MA 11
MD 10
ME 4 of 4 (1 can split)
MO 10
NE 5 of 5 (5 can split)
NJ 14
NY 29
OR 7
PA 20
RI 4
VT 3
WA 12
WI 10
= 269

PUBs
AK 3
AL 9
AR 6
AZ 11
GA 16
IA 6
ID 4
IN 11
KS 6
KY 8
LA 8
ME 0
MI 16
MN 10
MS 6
MT 3
NC 15
ND 3
NE 0
NH 4
NM 5
NV 6
OH 18
OK 7
SC 9
SD 3
TN 11
TX 38
UT 6
VA 13
WV 5
WY 3
= 269

I am positive my head would explode, but what else happens?

[Minus_The_Bear]

Goolge Trends graph of the last 12 months containing both search and news results.

palin

 ron paul  

 romney  

 pawlenty  

 herman cain  

[Minus_The_Bear]

[Minus_The_Bear]

What age groups do conservatives tend to draw voters from?

We need more creators and less joiners and spectators.

[Minus_The_Bear]

[Minus_The_Bear]