I would bet on reasons 1 through 4, as I do no think that he will actually be elected.
I agree with you. The great irony is that RP is more capable of pulling votes away from Obama than any other Republican and more of the youth, but it's unlikely he'd get past the GOP primaries. That means the GOP is likely going to wind up with a Romney or a Huckabee who is going to lose to Obama. I don't see anyone else on the horizon who can get enough support and name-recognition between now and 2012.