Absolutely true.
Part of the problem here is that scientists’ ability to generate numbers for the likelihood of various risks is actually quite low.
For example: Let’s say you life in Florida. We all know that Florida is hit by hurricanes from time to time.
But how many of them will make landfall with winds over 150 MPH?
Don’t know.
What is the likelihood that one, just one, will make landfall in *your* area of Florida with wind speeds over 150MPH? We can agree that there is a non-zero probability of there being a 150+MPH hurricane where your house sits in Florida.
What is the likelihood that such a hurricane will hit Florida where you live *while you’re alive and living there*?
Now suddenly the numbers get real fuzzy again.
OK, so let’s say you want to design a house that will survive those winds, just in case. Engineers can do that. We’ll just pour a foundation a foot thick, walls 18” thick, filled with the proper amounts of rebar, keeping rooms relatively small, 6” of ferroconcrete for the roof and we’ll keep it to a single story, with steel pilings that go 50’ into the ground. Doors will have seals on them to prevent water intrusion, and will use retractable bolts to keep from being blown out in the wind. Windows, the few that there are, will have armored plate shutters that close in an lock over the windows.
That oughta do it, yea?
Oh, you can’t afford that? And the wife is screaming about the lack of decor and windows? Something about not wanting to use a powder hammer to nail up pictures of the grandkids? Why? She said she wanted a house that would survive a hurricane!
These are the sorts of problems that we run into when trying to design for ‘black swan’ events. People just don’t and won’t pony up for them.
Everyone wants to go to heaven, no one wants to die first.
I want to move to West Virginia where there are country estates complete with private natural gas wells and limestone caverns and springs for sale at very reasonable prices. My wife isn’t too crazy about this idea though. What better place to be when TSHTF than your own cavern with endless natural gas for energy? Of course I could blow myself up but what the heck, it would be swift and painless, right?
Excellent posts.
I despair for the country when I see how poorly educated most people are. The lack of any grasp of science or math whatsoever is profoundly disturbing - and that is among the so-called ‘elite’ leaders in government and news media.
I wonder if we could help people better understand if we brought things down to a scale they can grok. Instead of talking billions and trillions, we say “What would you rather pay, ten dollars or ten thousand dollars? Because that is the difference between a billion and a trillion.”
I second the motion.