Posted on 03/25/2011 5:09:22 AM PDT by JSDude1
Rep. Jeff Landry (R-La.), a tea party-backed freshman, appears to have drawn the short straw in Louisiana’s new congressional map, as the delegation downsizes from seven members to six.
Negotiations are continuing in Baton Rouge on the details and a final vote on a plan is not expected before the weekend. But key legislative leaders—with encouragement from GOP Gov. Bobby Jindal—have coalesced behind a map that would carve up Landry’s district, according to news reports and Republicans who are monitoring the redistricting deal-making.
Most of Landry’s western parishes would become part of the coastal district held by Rep. Charles Boustany (R-La.), and its remaining parishes would mostly join the suburban New Orleans district of Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.). Landry has indicated that he would run against Boustany, but that contest would be uphill as Boustany would retain his much of his own turf, notably the population centers of Lake Charles and Lafayette.
The Louisiana redistricting process has been complicated not only by the loss of a seat through reapportionment but also because of delegation rivalries and the lingering effects of Hurricane Katrina’s devastation in 2005, which sparked large shifts of residents from New Orleans and Landry’s district in the state’s southeast corner.
For Republicans, those problems have been compounded because the delegation’s more senior members have joined forces to protect their own regional bases.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Unfortunately, the 2nd still falls under the auspices of the racist VRA. However, even if we could break it up, it could potentially jeopardize the surrounding districts. Better to cede the Dems 1 and keep all the rest than put half of the seats in LA in play.
>>This is no brainer; just get rid of the the Democrat’s district, not Landry’s
It’s not that simple. If you get rid of the dhimmi district the dhimmis in it have to go somewhere; they’d end up polluting the new districts. It’s best to try to quarantine them.
The odd guy out should run against Richmond, probably lose but get the endorsement to run against Landrieu in ‘14.
It’s not possible, or even desirable to dismantle the New Orleans seat. However running in it, even unsuccessfully, will give a candidate valuable experience in beating Landrieu.
Screw the VRA it’s time for a new “prescendent”.
This was a known fact when they the election was held for this seat.
This is way the former incumbant chose to run for Senate (and lost)
VRA or no VRA, it would be *impossible* not to draw at least one Democrat CD in the New Orleans area. The smartest move for the GOP would be what I’ve been saying for years now: draw as heavily black and heavily Democrat LA-02 as possible, taking in not just black precincts in NO and its suburbs but also cut across Lake Ponch to take in black-majority parishes to the west and black parts of Baton Rouge (with LA losing a CD and NO’s population being a shadow of what it was before Katrina, the LA-02 needs to add so many people that such a district is more of a necessity than an option). That would leave 5 safely Republican districts in the rest of the state.
The LA-06, which was recently held by Democrats and recaptured by Republican Bill Cassidy with below 50% in 2008, would still take in the Baton Rouge area, but stripped of most of its black precincts, and it would continue east to Tangipahoa and Washington Parishes, making it safely Republican.
The hyper-Republican LA-01 would be made slightly less Republican, trading Tangipahoa and Washington Parishes for St. Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes and more of Jefferson and St. Charles Parishes. This would need to be done not so as to “sacrifice” freshman Congressman Landry (who would admittedly be hurt by the plan) but because it makes sense for the GOP New Orleans suburbs to be in the same CD, and with Lake Ponch now serving as a bridge to connect black parts of NO and Baton Rouge in LA-02 there’s no other way to connect St. Tammany Parish to the southern and western suburbs of NO.
As for Landry, he can run against Congressman Boustany in the new all-Cajun LA-07, which would be stripped of the non-Cajun Lake Charles area (needed by CDs to the north) and substitute it with Lafourche, Terrebonne, St. Mary, St. Martin and Iberia Parishes. In if he’s smart, he’ll make a deal with Boustany, endorsing him for reelection in 2012 and for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (Boustany, a Protestant from Acadiana, is the ideal statewide candidate for the GOP) in return for Boustany’s endorsement as his LA-07 replacement in 2014.
The LA-04 and LA-05 can be handled one of two ways: either keep them more or less the same, but with the LA-04 dipping southward into the Lake Charles and all the way to the Gulf Coast and the LA-05 grabbing a few parishes currently in the LA-04 (such as Grant, Winn, Bienville and Claiborne), or draw the two districts to go east-west instead of north-south, with the LA-04 going from Shreveport to Monroe to the Mississippi River and the LA-05 taking in Alexandria, Natchitoches and Lake Charles. I think the latter might be the best way to make sure that both CDs remain safely GOP for the rest of the decade, but the LA-04 and LA-05 incumbents may prefer not to make too many changes to their CDs.
Louisiana Republicans have the chance to draw a map that will guarantee that the party will hold 5 of the state’s 6 CDs for the entire decade. I hope that neither petty politics nor overszealousness gets in the way of them doing so.
Unfortunately, you can get rid of the NO dem district. Even if you fought the law that makes former Confederate states have a black district, New Orleans will have its own district.
I think its better to have an 80% dem district with 2 Reps around it, rather than carve it up and make all three in play. And since souther La lost so many people, that is the area that should be carved up.
Unfortunately, Landry represents Iberia and Houma, along with the eastern ports in the GOM. This is a big oil district. We need to make sure the two that get it are pro offshore drilling. I believe they are, right now.
Technically, you’re wrong. There are what, five LA reps? As long as there are 5 more Republicans than Democrats in the entire state, you can draw five districts with one more Republican than Democrat in each of the five districts.
But it’s not feasible, politically wise, and would make a mockery of the VRA and the entire purpose of having done away with statewide districts (which did exist in some states at one point in time.) So I agree: four out of five districts being Republican is good enough, in a state with far fewer than four out of five voters being Republican.
What would be tragic, however, is if the Republicans simply continue to reinforce the sad fact that black = liberal. If you can choose which Democrats to lump together, it would be far better to lump the queers, limousine liberals and communists together, and actually allow some Republicans to represent some blacks. This would be good for Republicans, and for blacks, since most blacks’ Democratic representatives are the modern-day analogs to the Castle Irish who ruled British-dominated Ireland.
Unfortunately, the mundane implementation of the VRA enforces the notion that only Democrats can represent blacks.
Well, *technically* you’re right, but even without the VRA it would be practically impossible to split New Orleans into six separate CDs without making at least one of them a Democrat CD. Also, keep in mind that a CD that votes exactly as the State of Louisiana as a whole would be quite competitive for a Democrat congressional candidate: LA Democrats won, at one point or another in the past 10 years, 4 of the 6 CDs that voted more Republican than the state as a whole, and came within 356 votes of winning a fith such CD in 2008. To have safe GOP CDs in LA, they need to be markedly more Republican than the state as a whole, since so many voters still get conned into voting for “conservative Democrats.”
BTW, by making the LA-02 hyper Democrat and the other CDs safely Republican, the GOP will control 5 out of 6 CDs (not 4 out of 5), making your argument even stronger.
No risk, no Glory! I prefer that Lousiana GOPers get off their butt, run conservatives and Win all districts, but that’s just Me!
Brilliant!!!
I dont know, 6 out of 7 with no risk sounds pretty good to me.
“BTW, by making the LA-02 hyper Democrat and the other CDs safely Republican, the GOP will control 5 out of 6 CDs (not 4 out of 5), making your argument even stronger.”
Bottom-line - the GOP is making the correct and smart choice here, having one Dem seat for NO, and unfortunately we are losing a frosh Congressman.
Maybe he can run for a statewide seat or statehouse.
PS. A lesson on the price of overzealousness in redistricting. In Texas statehouse in 2003, they decided to draw in travis county 3 GOP and 3 Dem stathouse seats, even though the partisan split was more like 55 Dem 45 GOP. They won 3 seats in 2002, then lost one of them in 2004, another 2 in 2006 when the GOP was wiped out. They ended up with an all-Dem delegation instead of the desired 3. one of the seats was won back in 2010.
Had the redistricted for 2 seats, they could have kept the 2 GOP throughout.
If you over-reach, what happens is you end up losing MORE in a weak year, and then are unable to get back.
the match of getting 5 out of 6 really isnt bad in a state with 40%+ minority population.
Dumb question - do Cajun’s lean D or R overall? I honestly don’t know this.
The Voting Rights Act won’t let LA get rid of the black district in New Orleans. The law requires that it be sent north to include liberal districts of Baton Rouge. Landry’s best bet is to sit out 2012 and run against Landrieu in 2014.
Ditto.
Cajuns are generally conservative, and they lean Republican, but they aren’t as allergic to national Democrats (or, obviously, local Democrats) as are most other whites in the South—in other words, they’re 65%-35% Republican instead of 75%-25% Republican. I’m fairly certain that an all-Cajun CD stripped of most black areas (e.g., without most of St. Landry and Iberville Parishes) would vote comfortably Republican.
BTW, I meant that Cajuns are like 65%-35% GOP *for president*; they’re more like 55%-45% or 60%-40% GOP in other elections.
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