The problem with said analysis is that it’s not observed. One could infer the probability of many reactions occuring as impossible without the understanding of catalysts.
Same, even with the Sun, and the nuclear fusion in the core. We have to understand quantum tunnelling with the photons just to explain how the Sun can heat itself for billions of years, which is observed. Again, thermodynamics would suggest that this was in fact impossible.
Until we actually observe the raw chemical elements and their synthesis into amino acids, all hypothesis on the probability of such an event is conjectural. We don’t even understand precisely how they are put together. We are just now getting an inkling into the workings of the most simplest organisms and what their DNA coding means, let alone figuring out how it’s all put together.
And even then, we are simply co-opting existing genetic material and converting it into something else. We aren’t taking the raw chemical elements and combining them.
Until we actually observe the raw chemical elements and their synthesis into amino acids, all hypothesis on the probability of such an event is conjectural.
***That’s exactly what the probabilities were based upon, observing the raw chemical elements and their synthesis into amino acids.