Posted on 01/21/2011 5:55:57 AM PST by woodbutcher1963
Fannie Mae: Housing starts to triple by 2013 to nearly 1.5 millionby CHRISTINE RICCIARDI Wednesday, January 19th, 2011, 11:44 am
Despite the still fragile housing market, Fannie Mae expects housing starts to triple by 2013.
According to the agency's economic outlook, housing starts are predicted to increase 17.3% and hit 710,000 this year, with another 47% increase to 1.1 million in 2012 and another gain of 42% in 2013 to nearly 1.5 million.
In 2010, there were about 510,000 housing starts.
"We expect a small rise in home sales this year, but significant amounts of supply and shadow inventory of expected foreclosures will continue to hamper a robust housing picture for some time," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae's chief economist.
The government-sponsored enterprise projects total sales of new and existing homes to climb 4.5% in 2011 to 5.43 million, following an estimated decline of 6% for 2010 to about 5.2 million from 5.53 million for 2009.
Mortgage originations will drop to $1.04 trillion this year from $1.53 trillion last year. Fannie Mae also expects mortgage rates will increase in 2011, but not substantially.
"Fixed mortgage rates are projected to rise throughout the year, but to remain below 5.5%," the report said. "Larger increases in mortgage rates without corresponding acceleration in job gains would pose a risk to the housing recovery."
The median new home price in 2011 is expected to drop, as is the median existing home sale price, down 2.1% to $214,500 and 2.1% to $167,900, respectively.
Fannie Mae expects the U.S. economy to "accelerate and sustain" above-par and less volatile growth in 2011 based on increased consumer spending and growing clarity concerning fiscal policy.
According to the agency's economic outlook, Fannie Mae anticipates the economy to grow by 3.6% this year with consumer and business spending leading the way. This prediction was revised upward from 2.8% in December.
"The economy has regained momentum entering 2011 and we see significant improvement in the economy's ability to grow compared to 2010," said Duncan.
Write to Christine Ricciardi.
Dream on. And unemployment was not going over 8%.
Hope their right, but it is Fannie Mae who doesn’t have the greatest track record. Also, 1.5 million starts would be the largest perhaps ever and what predictable economics?
Pray for America
Anybody going to buy these houses?
Somebody has been smoking something....
And if they do, how many will be in default in less than 5 years?
Actually housing starts in 2005-2006 topped out at 2.2 million.
So when it’s less (and it will be) it will be “unexpected”.
There’s no way they will be building millions of houses with the foreclosure glut on the market.
Unless they plan to relax lending standards again!
You think they might have some 'inside' knowledge about an illegal alien amnesty bill, or some new type of VA-loan coming down the pipeline...... OR??????????
Do you think interest rates are staying below 6% over the nest several years?
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There’s something like a 10 year supply of ‘houses’ already on the market with very few buyers. These people are demonstrably insane.
Coming from a defunct and worthless government institution who has been taxpayer bailed out already to the tune of $150+ billion dollars, I call BS!! =.=
Anyone expecting that in the next three years?
And boy howdy, I hate that word "recovery". Housing has just finished recovering from a non-sustainable bubble. What it needs now is several years of benign neglect from the government so that the historic fundamentals can be reestablished.
WOW!! TRIPLE? All the way from 50 to 150 starts? Great news!!
How many trillion dollars have these brilliant forward thinking and furture predicting scum cost the tax payers. A bunch of over paid buffoons. And their creditability is below zero.
I think this is a stunt to justify keeping Fannie Mae around.
Doug Duncan should be ashamed of himself.
The truth be told! You are 100% correct.
Here is my negativity.
A percentage of the kids today aren’t even buying cars. The payments and insurance are out of their reach. The other 1/3 are living at home with their parent(s).
How many foreclosed houses are on the market now?
If they legalize all the illegal immigrants, it might bump up the numbers, but we will be deluged with immigrants trying to get in under the wire so as to be eligible. (Not good)
4th? The people elected Obama.
OK,
What a crock of shit!
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