U.S. Oil Output Down to a Trickle? (Gulf's contribution is dwindling)

Kiplinger ^ | 1/12/11 | Jim Patterson

[Tupelo]

I know, Everybody is stupid but YOU!

[Truth29]

"I believe they did this to force the Pubik to be glad that they are wasting Trillions on “Green Energy trinkets and unworkable power (Extremely expensive) systems that will cost us our economy and our retirements.

But will convince the masses that this was ever so necessary to same the Earth and the Peeples!"

Yes, classic misdirection along with fairy dust power systems. Add the foregoing to Chicago corrupt payoffs to environmental Democrat voting blocks and rent seeking Corporations and we have the perfect road map to bring the US down to second world (or worse) status.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Inexperienced....Yes.

Stupid...........NO.

As far as my assessment of your input, I am correct.

[woweeitsme]

Funny how we gave Brazil a bunch of money to go drill for oil off their coast.

I believe that Obama is set on bringing us down in his (hopefully 4-year) Presidency. He was raised and trained by people who despise this country.

[DakotaNative]

I heartily agree. This report is bogus and was written by someone who has no idea what they are taking about. In North Dakota they have three large fields of oil: Bakken, Three Forks and Spearfish to go along with other small ones. Only in the last 4-6 years has oil production taken off as new horizontal drilling methods opened up all three fields. The Bakken is the largest with estimated reserves that range from 169B to 300B with recoverable between 2b - 5b (government estimate private estimates are over 20 times higher). Three Forks is 20b barrels with and estimated 10% recoverable (government numbers) and Spearfish is a relatively new field with rumored potential to be as large as Bakken. The beauty of the Spearfish field (according to my brother who works the field) is that it is a shallow field -about 4,000 feet to drill to reach the oil. He says it takes two days to drill the hole and three days to go horizontal. In 5-6 days you are pumping oil. We are not talking 100 barrels a day per well, but rather thousands of barrels a day per well. The overall potential of those fields is huge and there is a boom taking place in towns like Minot, ND which is expected to double in size from 35k to 70k in the next five years. I have college friends who farm and are now making enough royalties from oil where they no longer have to farm. Given what is taking place the lower production from the Gulf will be more than made up from increased production from North Dakota. The press continues to talk up the line about declining production and growing foreign dependence for oil and natural gas. However, there is a natural gas boom taking place in states like Pennsylvania. The discoveries of natural gas is such that even Ombama cool-aid drinkers like the New York Times are posting opinion pieces advocating a greater role for natural gas in meeting our nation's energy needs. Apparently we have enough natural gas to run this country for sixty years and the number keeps growing. When taken as a whole, oil, Natural Gas, Nuclear Power, green initiatives, etc. we are on the edge of being energy self sufficient in the next 10-15 years and a major exporter of energy shortly thereafter. We need the media and the government to begin talking this up and for action to be taken to speed this up. Nice thing is this can all be done in a green way so the tree huggers can be happy.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

I am a Consultant, drilling in the Williston Basin. You are wrong on several points respectively.

For one, there are not 3 fields in the Basin. There is only one field. They call it the Williston Basin. There are several targeted production zones, which you referred to as “fields”. They are not fields. They are production zones.

her Three Forks is slightly below the the Bakken and is considered to be part of the Bakken as a conglomerate. The reason many horizontal programs are being drilled there is due to the lower cost of doing so and avoiding the excessive gas pressures yielded in the Middle Bakken. When the well is fracked, it brings the Bakken down and allows for better production.

The Spearfish is part of the Minnelusa, which is very limited and sporadic and just another production zone of the greater Williston Basin.

The average actual recovery rates over a sustained period is still under 5%. The wells drilled in the Bakken conglomerate (Three Forks included) fall off rapidly from 2 to 3 thousand barrels per day to around 500 within the first year. There is only just so much oil that the field as a whole will yield. In part, due to the nature of the geology and the limited porosity of siltstone and shale.

[TLI]

in almost every category we have more than a year ago and more oil in stock than when gasoline was 1.09 a gallon.

How about the other shoe?

"Ok. So what the heck is pushing up the price of crude?"

.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

The weak dollar and demand overseas in China, India and Pakistan. Russia is also increasing traffic.

[Iron Munro]

Obama, his cohorts and high level backers are people with influence, authority, but most of all, with money. Such as union leaders, financiers, do-good groups, racial and ethnic groups, etc.

At the personal level, these people could care less what fuel costs.

They ride in limosines paid for by others or written off as business/organizational expense. Most of them probably have no idea what a gallon of gasoline costs at the pump - or the cost of other commodities and necessities for that matter.

Their interests in fuel costs are financial (how to make money) and/or as a political issue and how it can be used to influence others to support an agenda, vote the right way, or pressure politicians.

[TLI]

So, QE and QE2, and lack of development of domestic sources for the past 22 or more years.

Somewhere I remember someone saying "Drill Baby Drill."

Sounds like they should be in charge...

.

[q_an_a]

the price of crude is rising because;

In two April columns for BusinessWeek magazine*, Wallace was the first to challenge Washington and the media's contention that prices for gasoline and crude oil are rising because of a decline in global inventories and stronger demand.

In reality, Wallace reported, speculators have largely driven the price for oil on the futures market to record levels. In addition, he wrote, demand for oil and gasoline is actually falling, and on April 1, U.S. gasoline reserves are at their highest levels since late 1992--all during a time when refinery production had been intentionally cut to force up the price of gasoline.

[q_an_a]

In two April columns for BusinessWeek magazine*, Ed Wallace was the first to challenge Washington and the media's contention that prices for gasoline and crude oil are rising because of a decline in global inventories and stronger demand.

In reality, Wallace reported, speculators have largely driven the price for oil on the futures market to record levels. In addition, he wrote, demand for oil and gasoline is actually falling, and on April 1, U.S. gasoline reserves are at their highest levels since late 1992--all during a time when refinery production had been intentionally cut to force up the price of gasoline.

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

Domestic Sources are already here and we know it. The problem is the extremely high cost of drilling for it in this day and age. We used to be able to drill a well in the Williston Basin for under 1 Million Dollars. The cost now is over 5 million per well on the average, in spite of all the new developments in drilling technology.

Some companies are starting to take drastic measures that I cannot discuss on this forum, in an effort to bring those costs back down.

[UCANSEE2]

Take a look at the oil inventory report for this week - in almost every category we have more than a year ago and more oil in stock than when gasoline was 1.09 a gallon.

Isn't that more likely due to the FACT that people can't afford to buy much gasoline?????

[UCANSEE2]

Isn’t the reason for the increase due to CHINA ?

They are importing more, getting it for less. We are importing less, getting it for more.

[q_an_a]

The price is based not just on home much is needed but how speculators drive it...to make a profit for their customers. Two oil traders can bet the price up and that is what is sells for even if they don’t take delivery. The oil countires have been saying for a year the “correct” price of oil is $60.00 but specualtors have driven it up.

[TLI]

The oil countries have been saying for a year the “correct” price of oil is $60.00 but speculators have driven it up.

Yep. That is what I have heard as well.

I also heard the $140.00 bbl oil was due to cash pulled from the collapsing mortgages market and being stuffed into energy futures.

Put all three together, no development of domestic resources, printing funny money and speculators jacking the price every time a homie in the third world throws a rock at a pipeline and little bammie is closer to getting his wish.

.

[bassmaner]

Nice thing is this can all be done in a green way so the tree huggers can be happy.

Interesting point, but man does it run counter to the leftist narrative!

With the ultimate leftist goal being the destruction of the American economy, there's no doubt that no matter how 'green' oil and gas extraction methods become, it'll never be quite good enough for the eco-Marxists. They'll just keep moving the goal posts: the fact that greenies in CA and other places are suing to prevent construction of wind farms (slices and dices the birds, doncha know) and solar power plants (might displace some obscure species of rat, doncha know) is proof that they'll never be satisfied.

[upcountryhorseman]

The drill rigs have left for off the Brazilian Coast and other places in the world. It will be several years before
they can come back.