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That is indeed a "stupendous change," and I think the author is right: the US is going to blithely ignore it.
I have been concerned about Tunisia because it is now a vacuum that will no doubt be filled by Islamists (with the encouragement of the US, probably), and Egypt of course is a serious concern.
Islam has always been about "offensive jihad," but the muftis and head honchos haven't dared to admit it because of the weakened condition of Islamic states for so many decades, if not centuries. However, what they have learned is that while the West may be stronger, it is not on the offensive against Islam or even resisting it in any way, and therefore it doesn't matter that the Islamic states are dysfunctional or weak. They know now that all they have to do is push at the door to the West and it will open.
Revolution in the Arab World
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=blogsearch&cd=3&ved=0CC8QmAEwAg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fgrendelreport.posterous.com%2Frevolution-in-the-arab-world&rct=j&q=Dr.%20Walid%20Phares%20tunisia&ei=ITY2TbfcKoP7lwed9eCGAw&usg=AFQjCNFNSqJ1ENiB5f63RslYf-IFausZEA&cad=rja
(Snip)
Dr. Walid Phares, author of The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the Middle East, agreed that the secularists would have to withstand challenges from remnants from Ben Alis security forces, ultra-Arab nationalists and Islamists, but said victory is possible. He added that the Jasmine Revolution is part of a shift occurring in the region.
In my new book, I have projected a new era of revolts and uprisings in the region but I have noted that it is going to be a long path, full of successes and setbacks before democracy becomes the dominant political culture in the region, Dr. Phares told FrontPage.
But the dynamics for change are here and they arent going back. From Iran to Sudan, Lebanon to Algeria, I see shakeups coming. A new era has begun, he said.
(Snip)