This is a case of bad soldiers in the service of a good king.
Bastardi is a terrible forecaster, himself.
His prediction for this year’s tropical season:
“This year has the chance to be an extreme season,” said Bastardi. “It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States’ East and Gulf coasts.”
Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes, and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.”
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25984/joe-bastardi-more-active-2010-1.asp
The irritating thing is that it’s Bastardi that year after year is making extreme forecasts of US hurricane landfalls, yet it’s NOAA (who doesn’t predict US landfalls at all, just total activity) or Bill Gray (who makes non-specific landfall probability forecasts) who get abused for “overhyping” the hurricane season to support global warming - and yet another irritation is that the NOAA scientists who do the seasonal forecast, and Dr. Gray, BOTH believe that increased hurricane activity in recent years has NOTHING to do with Global Warming.
Bastardi promised me a dry winter. So far, California has been very wet.
Laptop beats Met Supercomputer: SOI index (at record high) scores a win. (Global Cooling )
They are all terrible. I don't think I have ever seen a 7 day forcast that was correct past the third day.
I can't even imagine that anyone can believe this global warming crap.
They really think that they can accurately predict the temperature 50 years from now, when they can't even tell you if it's going to rain next Friday.
The problem Bastardi creates for himself is that he is so specific on his forecasts that he sets himself up to fail. Bastardi is not one to take the safe route and predict partly cloudy with chance of snow like so many other mets do.
Instead, he'll call for say 3-6 inches of snow in Scranton, PA and 6-10 inches in Philly. Then if the storm moves 50 miles further east and Scranton only picks up a couple inches and Philly only gets about five inches, people will say his forecast busted while the mets who called for "partly cloudy with a chance of snow" will be able to claim they were right. But Bastardi wouldn't have it any other way.
Anyhow, weather forecasting is more of an art than a science and very few can be right more than 50% of the time (unless they are forecasting in say, Phoenix, Arizona). This underscores the fallacy of the global warming crowd. If we can't accurately predict the weather 7 days from now, how can we predict what will happen years or decades from now?