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To: neverdem

This is a case of bad soldiers in the service of a good king.

Bastardi is a terrible forecaster, himself.

His prediction for this year’s tropical season:

“This year has the chance to be an extreme season,” said Bastardi. “It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States’ East and Gulf coasts.”

Bastardi is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes, and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.”

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25984/joe-bastardi-more-active-2010-1.asp

The irritating thing is that it’s Bastardi that year after year is making extreme forecasts of US hurricane landfalls, yet it’s NOAA (who doesn’t predict US landfalls at all, just total activity) or Bill Gray (who makes non-specific landfall probability forecasts) who get abused for “overhyping” the hurricane season to support global warming - and yet another irritation is that the NOAA scientists who do the seasonal forecast, and Dr. Gray, BOTH believe that increased hurricane activity in recent years has NOTHING to do with Global Warming.


2 posted on 01/14/2011 9:56:42 AM PST by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist

Bastardi promised me a dry winter. So far, California has been very wet.


10 posted on 01/14/2011 10:10:05 AM PST by Excellence (Buy Progresso, take off the label, write "not halal," mail to Campbell's soup company.)
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To: Strategerist
Discussion about another forecaster on this thread:

Laptop beats Met Supercomputer: SOI index (at record high) scores a win. (Global Cooling )

11 posted on 01/14/2011 10:10:33 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Strategerist
>>>Bastardi is a terrible forecaster, himself.<<<

They are all terrible. I don't think I have ever seen a 7 day forcast that was correct past the third day.

I can't even imagine that anyone can believe this global warming crap.

They really think that they can accurately predict the temperature 50 years from now, when they can't even tell you if it's going to rain next Friday.

15 posted on 01/14/2011 10:22:43 AM PST by kara37
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To: Strategerist
Actually Bastardi is one of the better forecasters. I subscribe to his blog and more often than not, he beats the local New England forecasters by a mile and he had the most recent snowstorm pegged days before local mets even started talking about it.

The problem Bastardi creates for himself is that he is so specific on his forecasts that he sets himself up to fail. Bastardi is not one to take the safe route and predict partly cloudy with chance of snow like so many other mets do.

Instead, he'll call for say 3-6 inches of snow in Scranton, PA and 6-10 inches in Philly. Then if the storm moves 50 miles further east and Scranton only picks up a couple inches and Philly only gets about five inches, people will say his forecast busted while the mets who called for "partly cloudy with a chance of snow" will be able to claim they were right. But Bastardi wouldn't have it any other way.

Anyhow, weather forecasting is more of an art than a science and very few can be right more than 50% of the time (unless they are forecasting in say, Phoenix, Arizona). This underscores the fallacy of the global warming crowd. If we can't accurately predict the weather 7 days from now, how can we predict what will happen years or decades from now?

21 posted on 01/14/2011 10:58:44 AM PST by SamAdams76
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To: Strategerist
Bastardi was right about activity, wrong about US landfall. The canes either tracked to the south, were turned out to sea in the east or weakened in the gulf. Basically due to a lack of depth in shallow water ocean heat. The Atmospheric conditions caused strong cane activity, but the water conditions did not support enough power to make significant US landfall. That has been the case ever since we entered weak solar activity levels, but hey, what are actual observations compared to million dollar computer model runs :>
35 posted on 01/14/2011 2:22:06 PM PST by justa-hairyape
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