Posted on 01/14/2011 9:51:25 AM PST by neverdem
The problem Bastardi creates for himself is that he is so specific on his forecasts that he sets himself up to fail. Bastardi is not one to take the safe route and predict partly cloudy with chance of snow like so many other mets do.
Instead, he'll call for say 3-6 inches of snow in Scranton, PA and 6-10 inches in Philly. Then if the storm moves 50 miles further east and Scranton only picks up a couple inches and Philly only gets about five inches, people will say his forecast busted while the mets who called for "partly cloudy with a chance of snow" will be able to claim they were right. But Bastardi wouldn't have it any other way.
Anyhow, weather forecasting is more of an art than a science and very few can be right more than 50% of the time (unless they are forecasting in say, Phoenix, Arizona). This underscores the fallacy of the global warming crowd. If we can't accurately predict the weather 7 days from now, how can we predict what will happen years or decades from now?
The problem Bastardi creates for himself is that he is so specific on his forecasts that he sets himself up to fail. Bastardi is not one to take the safe route and predict partly cloudy with chance of snow like so many other mets do.
What he actually does the vast majority of the time is simply repetitively forecast the most extreme/stormy possibility over and over again. This means his forecasts are routinely a disaster, but every once in a while he can crow about being the "first" to forecast an extreme event when it does happen.
He's claims a unique ability to forecast the formation of tropical storms/hurricanes in the Atlantic; a few years ago I actually went through all of his blog posts for a hurricane season; basically, every 2-3 days he forecast a tropical wave to develop - even for a period of several months in the season where NOTHING developed. However, because he constantly forecast tropical development, he could take credit for forecasting EVERYTHING that DID develop.
Once you learn a bit more about meteorology and objective analysis of forecasts, your admiration for Bastardi will likely turn to contempt; I've seen it happen for a lot of other people.
But that will contribute to global warming!
Go Joe!!!!
He is so right.
The only ones I have seen that are reasonably reliable is the lows that Form over Texas and come up the coast to become nor'easters. Those you can pretty much predict from more than three days out.
bttt
Are you a meteorologist?
Sicilian, too.
I’ve been on vacation there and noticed that.
We’re in NY and since we’re solidly in the prevailing south-westerlies, can see the weather systems coming from either across the country, (from out west) or up the coast.
Down in FL, you have ocean on both sides of the state and are much closer to the Trade winds. There doesn’t seem to be any rhyme or reason for what the weather there does or doesn’t do.
Hurricanes aside....
Those lows over TX do seem to be pretty reliable, but even that isn’t going to give you more than three days notice like we get. You’re too close.
Interesting comments across the whole spectrum regarding Joe, on these posts.
No, but I play one on the Internet.
I play one in real life.
Hence the *met*mom.
Joe Bastardi is great. I started watching his web forecasts long before FOX News discovered him. I’ve been a fan of weather forecasting since the ‘70s when I worked outdoors year ‘round and Joe’s forecasts are the most informed and accurate of any I’ve ever seen. He totally blew away the nonsense idea that Glowbull Warming would increase the number and intensity of hurricanes.
You forgot the sarcasm tag.
What part of NY? Not the western tier, I take it.
Not any more. I’m in Central NY. Just enough to catch the edge of most of the nor’easters. Depending.
I watch those nor’easters like a hawk.
It’s kind of fun to see if I can predict where they’re going to end up and how much snow we’re going to get when the NWS won’t even commit until it’s actually snowing.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.