Posted on 12/17/2010 6:55:06 PM PST by Palmetto Patriot
House Editor David Wasserman kicks off the Cook Political Report’s in-depth coverage of Redistricting 2012, which you can also follow via Twitter handle @Redistrict as the remap gets underway. Over the next year, we will be using population estimates from Election Data Services, political data from Polidata’s Clark Bensen, and a new interactive mapping tool (Dave Bradlee’s Redistricting App) to make sense of the madness. But before redistricting can begin, there must be reapportionment. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau will fulfill its constitutional mandate and release its highly anticipated official state population totals and the resulting allotment of House seats and Electoral College votes for the next decade.
For some states, there isn’t much suspense. Georgia, Nevada, and Utah are all but certain to gain an additional seat in the House, while Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania are all but certain to lose a seat and Ohio is all but certain to lose two seats. However, much like NCAA basketball teams anticipate Selection Sunday, some states are “on the bubble” and won’t know how many seats they will have until Tuesday. According to population estimates released by Election Data Services’ Kimball Brace, the ten states in contention for the “last five” seats in the House (in order of likelihood to make the cut) are South Carolina, Florida, Minnesota, Washington, Texas, New York, California, Arizona, North Carolina, and Illinois.
While South Carolina, Washington, California, and North Carolina are all in the running for one additional seat, Minnesota and Illinois are fighting just to preserve their current totals. The big winner, Texas, will gain either three or four new seats. Florida and Arizona will either gain one or two new seats. And New York will lose either one or two of its current seats.
(Excerpt) Read more at cookpolitical.com ...
The silver lining is that in Michigan we’re gonna lose a democrat.
There is good news or bad news for us in South Carolina.
We stand a good chance of picking up a seat. If the Legislature is left alone to reapportion the districts, it most certainly will be a Republican seat.
However, under the Voting Rights Act, the Justice Department has the right to review and pass on reapportionment in our state. If Eric Holder has a say, the new seat will probably be Democratic.
“However, under the Voting Rights Act, the Justice Department has the right to review and pass on reapportionment in our state.”
What does this mean?
With the White House running the census, I wouldn’t be surprised if all of the Congressional seats are moved to California and Massachusetts.
Texas fits in the same boat. Even with gaining either three or four new seats the Feds still have to pass muster. Nine states are still have the fed oversight along with some selected areas in other states.
“However, while this is the first time Republicans have ever held exclusive control of the remap, this is also the first time a Democratic-appointed Justice Department will be overseeing preclearance of Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, and the Obama Justice Department may deny “preclearance” based on this fact: if South Carolina gains a seventh district, it will be possible to split the 6th CD in two and draw two African-American majority districts, one based in Columbia (Clyburn’s home) and one anchored by Charleston and the Low Country.”
The Voting Rights Act was passed to address inequities in southern states regarding the Civil Rights of African Americans. It gave the Justice Department oversight over issues such as redistricting and laws regarding voting in general.
Okay, so Holder is going to make sure Jackasses hold on to some some of the new seats in Texas, South Carolina, and probably Florida. Big Deal. GOP is still going to hang on to a solid majority in the house.
The big news is that a net of about 6 Electoral College votes will be added to states that traditionally vote GOP. A net loss of about 6 ECV will be subtracted from states that traditionally vote Dem. In a tight race like the Bush-Gore race in 2000, these extra ECV’s could make all the difference.
I read Arizona, Texas, Florida, Ga, and So. Carolina will all gain. Mass., NY, Penn., Mich., N.J. will lose.
From Blue to Red... that’s a dozen or so Democratic seats gone forever. This is not good holiday news for San Fran Nan!
Those laws now smack of federal colonialism. There is no longer pervasive discrimination in Southern states. The real reason for federal oversight is now of a political nature.
Which is precisely why Barry Goldwater famously voted against it: The law did not apply to every state of the union.
No matter how egregious a jurisdiction in, say, Illinois might discriminate against any minority, it is not subject to the Voting Rights Act.
Once again, the Yankee government screws the Confederate states. Whatever happened to that part of UNITED States?
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