I agree.
The Chi Coms can take us out without firing a shot. They have nothing to prove with a missile launch.
The Iranians would have more to gain, but only if they had something to deliver. Our sensors would have picked up a test.
The Russians have better stuff than that.
Aside from that, who would want to tweak us like that?
The whole, ‘they are trying to send a message” thing just doesn’t make sense.
I would buy a test of someone else’s weapons from our launch platform. But why hide that?
Unfortunately the contrail is the only thing that makes sense.