Replies

I’ve been saying a 92 seat gain, but that doesn’t include a tsunami effect from a 15 point Republican advantage.

Here are the potential dem seats that could fall to a +15 Republican swing.
154 possible pickups
AL 02 Roby vs. Bright
AZ 01 Gosar vs. Kirkpatrick
AZ 04 Contreras vs. Pastor
AZ-05 Schweikert vs. Mitchell
AZ-07 McClung vs. Grijalva
AZ-08 Kelly vs. Giffords
AR-01 Crawford vs. Causey
AR-02 Griffin vs. Elliot
AR-04 Rankin vs. Ross
CA-01 Hanks vs. Thompson
CA-10 Clift vs. Garamendi
CA-18 Berryhill vs. Cardoza
CA-20 Vidak vs. Costa
CA-23 Lawson vs. Capps
CA-29 Colbert vs. Schiff
CA-36 Fein vs. Harmon
CA-37 Parker vs. Richardson
CA-39 Andre vs. Linda Sanchez
CA-47 Tran vs.Loretta Sanchez
CA-51 Popaditch vs. Filner
CO-02 Bailey vs. Polis
CO-03 Tipton vs. Salazar
CO-04 Gardner vs. Markey
CO-07 Frazier vs.Perlmutter
CT-01 Brickley vs. Larson
CT-02 Peckinpaugh vs. Courtney
CT-03 Labriola vs DeLauro
CT-04 Debicella vs. Himes
CT-05 Caliguiri vs. Murphy
DE-AL Urquhart vs. Carney
FL-02 Southerland vs. Boyd
FL-08 Webster vs. Grayson
FL-20 Harrington vs. Wasserman-Schultz
FL-22 West vs.Klein
FL-24 Adams vs.Kosmas
GA-02 Keown vs. Bishop
GA-12 Seaver vs. Barrow
GA-13 Crane vs. Scott
IL-03 Bendas vs. Lipinski
IL-11 Kinzinger vs. Halvorsen
IL-12 Davis-Newman vs. Costello
IL-14 Hultgren vs. Foster
IL-17 Schilling vs. Hare
IN-02 Walorski vs. Donnelly
IN-08 Bucshon vs. Van Haaften
IN-09 Young vs. Hill
IA-01 Lange vs. Braley
IA-02 Miller-Meeks vs. Loebsack
IA-03 Zaun vs.Boswell
KS-03 Moore vs. Yoder
KY-03 Lally vs.Yarmuth
KY-06 Barr vs. Chandler
LA-03 Landry vs. Sangisetty
ME-01 Scontras vs. Pingree
ME-02 Levesque vs.Michaud
MD-01 Harris vs.Kratovil
MD-05 Lollar vs. Hoyer
MA-02 Wesley vs.Neal
MA-03 Lamb vs.McGovern
MA-04 Bielat vs. Frank
MA-05 Golnik vs. Tsongas
MA-06 Hudak vs. Tierney
MA-10 Perry vs. Keating
MI-01 Benishek vs.McDowall
MI-05 Kupiec vs. Kildee
MI-07 Walberg vs. Schauer
MI-09 Raczowski vs. Peters
MI-15 Steele vs. Dingell
MN-01 Demmer vs. Walz
MN-07 Byberg vs. Peterson
MN-08 Cravaack vs. Oberstar
MS-01 Nunnelee vs. Childers
MS-04 Palazzo vs. Taylor
MO-03 Martin vs. Carnahan
MO-04 Hartzler vs. Skelton
NV-03 Heck vs. Titus
NH-01 Guinta vs. Shea-Porter
NH-02 Bass vs. Kuster
NJ-03 Runyan vs. Adler
NJ-06 Little vs. Pallone
NJ-08 Straten vs. Pascrell
NJ-09 Agosta vs. Rothman
NJ-12 Siprelle vs.Holt
NM-01 Barela vs. Heinrich
NM-02 Pearce vs. Teague
NM-03 Mullins vs.Lujan
NY-01 Altschuler vs. Bishop
NY-02 Gomez vs. Israel
NY-04 Becker vs.McCarthy
NY-09 Turner vs. Weiner
NY-13 Grimm vs.McMahon
NY-19 Hayworth vs. Hall
NY-20 Gibson vs. Murphy
NY-21 Danz vs. Tonko
NY-22 Phillips vs.Hinchey
NY-23 Doheny vs.Owens
NY-24 Hanna vs. Arcuri
NY-25 Buerkle vs.Maffei
NY-27 Roberto vs. Higgins
NY-29 Reed vs. Zeller
NC-01 Woolard vs.Butterfield
NC-02 Ellers vs. Etheridge
NC-04 Lawson vs. Price
NC-07 Pantano vs. McIntyre
NC-08 Johnson vs. Kissell
NC-11 Miller vs. Shuler
NC-13 Randall vs. Miller
ND-AL Berg vs.Pomeroy
OH-01 Chabot vs. Driehaus
OH-06 Johnson vs. Wilson
OH-09 Iott vs.Kaptur
OH-10 Corrigan vs. Kucinich
OH-13 Ganley vs. Sutton
OH-15 Stivers vs.Kilroy
OH-16 Rennaci vs. Boccieri
OH-18 Gibbs vs. Space
OR-01 Cornilles vs. Wu
OR-04 Robinson vs. DeFazio
OR-05 Bruun vs. Schrader
PA-03 Kelly vs. Dahlkemper
PA-04 Rothfus vs. Altmire
PA-07 Meehan vs.Lentz
PA-08 Fitzpatrick vs.Murphy
PA-10 Marino vs. Carney
PA-11 Barletta vs. Kanjorsky
PA-12 Burns vs. Critz
PA-13 Adcock vs. Schwartz
PA-17 Argall vs. Holden
RI-01 Loughlin vs. Cicilline
SC-05 Mulvaney vs. Spratt
SD-AL Noem vs. Herseth-Sandlin
TN-04 Desjarlais vs. Davis
TN-05 Hall vs. Cooper
TN-06 Carter vs. Black
TN-08 Fincher Vs. Herron
TN-09 Bergmann vs. Cohen
TX-15 Zamora vs. Hinojosa
TX-17 Flores vs. Edwards
TX-20 Trotter vs. Gonzalez
TX-23 Canseco vs. Rodriguez
TX-25 Campbell vs. Doggett
TX-27 Farenthold vs. Ortiz
TX-28 Underwood vs. Cuellar
UT-02 Philpot vs.Matheson
VA-02 Rigell vs.Nye
VA-05 Hurt vs. Pirriello
VA-08 Murray vs.Moran
VA-09 Griffith vs. Boucher
VA-11 Fimian vs. Connolly
WV-01 McKinley vs. Olverio
WV-03 Maynard vs. Rahall
WI-03 Kapanke vs. Kind
WI-07 Duffy vs. Lassa
WI-08 Ribble vs.Kagen

This list only considers the composition of the districts and not the qualities or financing of individual candidates. Some of these listed may be ruled out by poor candidates, no money, etc. Let me know if I missed any that are in play.