Posted on 10/31/2010 6:46:20 PM PDT by kristinn
PRINCETON, NJ -- The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.
The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.
SNIP
Gallup's historical model suggests that a party needs at least a two-point advantage in the national House vote to win a majority of the 435 seats. The Republicans' current likely voter margin suggests that this scenario is highly probable, making the question of interest this election not whether the GOP will win the majority, but by how much. Taking Gallup's final survey's margin of error into account, the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible.
It should be noted, however, that this year's 15-point gap in favor of the Republican candidates among likely voters is unprecedented in Gallup polling and could result in the largest Republican margin in House voting in several generations. This means that seat projections have moved into uncharted territory, in which past relationships between the national two-party vote and the number of seats won may not be maintained.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
A lot of places that will see at least one GOP win(Maine, Mass, Delaware, PA) ARE uncharted territory for them.
In our single member constituency system, the GOP could win up to 300 seats if they win 55% of the national vote. That would leave the Democrats with fewer than 135 House seats. No wonder the Democrats are deeply concerned.
Got a tingle going up my leg......
I think a lot of republicans who aren’t doing great will get swept up in the wave as well.
BTTT - need a good news bit before hitting the hay.
For all the talk about some of these tight senate races if the generic ballot is close to what they’re projecting than the GOP is going to win more of those than anticipated.
“Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible”
Hehehehehehehe, I am also starting to get a tingle up my leg. Snort, snort, snicker snicker.
naa... all those protesters are just “astro turf” Nancy said so!
lol
My thoughts exactly. If the spread is that big, we could see a number of upsets by Republicans being carried to victories by the national wave. If the Democrats have built a tidal wave barrier, its nowhere in sight.
Chrissy will lose that tingling feeling. The juice will run out.
Yup... that has to worry Senate Democrats locked in tight races. In a normal year, they’d survive but they can’t do that if their base disappears right underneath them this year.
Just wondering.
The Democrats should be gravely concerned. I’ve projected Republicans picking up an additional 129 seats.
In particular, a significant proportion of the Democrat votes will be packed into those fifty-or-so minority-majority districts that Democrat gerrymanderers (and the courts) are so proud of.
Meaning that, in the other 385 districts, the generic ballot is a helluva lot stronger for Republicans than 55-40.
Wipe-out.
Lepanto PING!!
Now is the when the pollsters start putting out their real numbers so they can claim they were accurate. Happens every time.
ROFL. Thank you Chris Matthews. :)
I am counting the minutes to go to the polls and vote. I can’t wait to give a giant F U to Obama and his minions
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