Posted on 10/29/2010 8:56:03 AM PDT by Brices Crossroads
I have been following this race closely since before the Primary, which is probably why I am more bullish on Christine O'Donnell's prospects than many Freepers are. There are several reasons.
I. Turnout
As nearly everyone who has ever watched an offyear election closely has observed, this election will be determined by turnout, that is: Who shows up to vote? The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that the GOP turnout advantage this year will likely be the largest in over a century, much larger than in 1994. Gallup estimates not only that the electorate will be 55-40% GOP and GOP leaning independents, but that the number of self identifying conservatives will be 48%, the highest it has ever been, since the stats have been maintained. In the wave year of 1994, for example, it was only 40% conservative.
II. Delaware
Turnout will only take you so far, though, says the skeptic. This is, after all, Delaware, among the most liberal states in the Union. Right? Well, not exactly right. Before 2000, Delaware had voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1952 (which meant twice for Eisenhower, twice for Nixon and twice for Reagan). In a word, Delaware follows the national trends very reliably. And we know where that trend is leading this year, don't we?
Well, Delaware is just another Connecticut, isn't it? No. Not really. The largest city in Delaware is Wilmington, with a population of 72,000. The next largest city is Dover with 35,000. It is really a conglomerate of small towns and rural areas. (Imagine, for example, how red Louisiana would be if you New Orleans were in an adjacent state). Connecticut, on the other hand has no less than seven cities larger than Wilmington. The two are not equivalent. Delaware is a small town, rural state. It should be fertile ground for Republicans. Why, then, have they had so little success in statewide,non-Presidential)elections of late? The answer is voter cynicism, directly traceable to:
III.The Delaware Establishment.
Both wings. Until this year, for decades, the GOP and Democrat Party in Delaware have had a symbiotic relationship, typified by the infamous "Swap" of 1992 in which then-Congressman Tom Carper (D) and then-Governor Mike Castle arranged to clear the field for each other and exchange seats. This year, a similar arrangement had been worked out. 71 year old Mike Castle would once again exchange seats with a Democrat (and would by prearrangement defeat the sacrificial lamb, Chris Coons)moving up to he Senate for four years until 2014 when(by yet another arrangement) he would step aside for Beau Biden in yet another iteration of "the Swap". It was all set. Until Christine O'Donnell came along.
IV. The Candidates and the Electorate
I have waxed on, in numerous previous posts, about Christine O'Donnell's skills and appeal as a candidate. That she is currently smoking the hapless Coons both in Facebook fans and in fund raising is well documented. The intensity of her support will mean that her supporters will turn out no matter what.
However, it did not occur to me until last night the profound, unprecedented (in modern times)effect that her candidacy is going to have on the COMPOSITION of the electorate. She mentioned on Hannity the number of people who will be voting this time who had never voted before (or hadn't voted in decades) because, in their estimation (if not in actual fact), the system was rigged. In defeating Mike Castle, she struck a mortal blow at the Establishment that is going to change the character of the Delaware electorate in 2010. The composition of the Delaware electorate will more closely resemble 1984 and 1988 (rather than a typical off year election) when Delawareans were actually voting FOR something, giving Ronald Reagan 59% and his 1988 stand-in Bush 55% of its vote, (both exceeding the national percentage) rather than AGAINST something or, in many cases, not voting at all.
V. The Gawker Smear: Nikki Haley Redux?
I notice that the odious and vile smear of Christine O'Donnell, which has been roundly condemned even by NOW and Dave Weigel (and many others) is getting wide coverage in the press. I did a vanity post on Christine back on September 3, before her victory in the primary, decrying her vilification and comparing the smears against her (which dealt principally with her finances and allegations that she was paranoid) to those directed at Nikki Haley last June in South Carolina.
The Kneecapping of Christine O'Donnell (Nikki Haley Redux?)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2582923/posts
Little did I suspect that the Democrats would try a tactic as stupid as this. (Their internal polls must show Coons in free fall for them to pull this stunt). In South Carolina, as soon as it became apparent that the culprit was an ally of the sitting Lieutenant Governor Andre Bauer (a credible candidate with the endorsement of Mike Huckabee), Bauer's support crumbled and he fell to 4th place on Election day, garnering only 12% of the vote to Haley's 49%. In the case of South Carolina, there was some doubt as to who was responsible for the smear, since there were three other candidates in the race besides Haley. In this case, if voters want to punish someone for this nasty smear of a really nice person, they only have one option: Chris Coons. He is going to take it in the shorts.
VI. Enter Palin
Sarah Palin will, I understand, be in Wilmington for the Tea Party Express rally on Sunday. As I have said repeatedly, The Governor's timing is impeccable. Her visit will undoubtedly energize the electorate which will show up to vote on Tuesday (and will give the lie to the notion that Palin is a drag on the GOP ticket anywhere this year)
http://texas4palin.blogspot.com/2010/10/gov-palin-in-new-jersey-october-31.html
Moreover, being a master political tactician, she is going to see this "Gawker smear" as an opportunity and use it. You can count on her to twist the rhetorical knife in the Democrats, the Establishment and the hapless Coons for this vile smear just as she did in the Nikki Haley episode. Maybe after all this is over with, Chris Coons can get together with Andre Bauer and commiserate about the experience of being Palin "road kill".
Ping!
Ping, too.
GO O’Donnell!!!!!!!
First. I want ODonnell to win. Second. I agree with 90% of Palinn's politics. But this notion above is just ridiculous an the ease of which we give people such credit, such traits is how people like Obama were considered more than ready to be POTUS/CinC.
Mrs. Palin has been a one term Governor (which she didn't even finish) and part of a losing Presidential bid. The notion that she is a "master" political tactician is just hyperbole. And not needed on our side.
And while I don't agree with plenty of Rove's comments of late, the notion that many on our side would consider Palin a better tactician or strategist than Rove shows me how emotion filled our side is....just like the left.
Thanks for the insight!
BTW, Mark Levin's show Tuesday night will be 4 hours. He'll be using the ABC electoral map on his website for his ongoing comments. I'll have the show and map along with FR on my PC, and the LSM on the TV in the background. Doesn't get any better for a political junkie!
Good luck to Christine and all the Tea Party patriots running.
You might be able to add another factor:
VII: THE WEATHER
It’s generally thought that crummy weather depresses turnout on the part of democrat voters, particularly in years when they are not committed to voting. For several days it has been apparent that the weather along the Atlantic seaboard on November 2 will be cold, rainy and drizzly: http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40666/midterm-election-day-forecast.asp
He also said Coons has canceled the last 2 debates and the latest poll shows O'Donnell leading among independents 47-42. It really is about turnout, as you said. Go Christine!
“Rush just said the Dems always telegraph their fears and said Obama is going back to Delaware tomorrow. Hehehe.”
It’s on, Al. Palin versus Obama. Mondale and Dukakis both got smoked in Delaware as did McGovern in 1972.
Kerry and Gore won it fairly narrowly against a fairly lackluster GOP candidate (Bush 43).
Obama is misreading the electorate as usual. 2008 was a big Dem year against a very hapless GOP candidate. He had a favorite son on the ticket with him. It is a completely different electorate he faces now. Completely different candidates (Coons and O’Donnell) and it is Palin as his opposite, not McCain.
It is like trying to re-fight the Battle of Gettysburg on completely different terrain with completely different armies and completely different commanders. Only idiots (like Obama and the illiterate leftist press) would expect the same outcome.
O’Donnell is going to win this one. I am about as certain of it as I can be.
A good Republican tactician or strategist doesn't trash a Republican candidate after the Republican candidate wins the primary.
A good Republican tactician or strategist does rally support around that candidate.
Just like the left and Carl Rove, your emotions are effecting your point-of-view.
She’s as qualified as any who have held the position the last 20 years and would be a better president than any of them. She is a true conservative. That’s good enough for me!!!
Why stop with the Delaware electorate of 1984 and 1988 in making your argument. Heck, take it back to the 1800s, or even the 1700s. Once upon a time, a conservative won in Delaware; therefore, Christine of the Immaculate Conception will win in 2010. Nevermind that she actually began an ad by saying “I am not a witch.”
Oh, I forgot. “I am not a crook” kept Nixon from having to resign, so “I am not a witch” and a pinch of dried spider leg will no doubt be just the brew to cast a spell in Delaware.
Another one, ironically lecturing folks about their so called emotions.
Everyone here needs to work full out till the polls close on Tuesday.
Hmmmm, perhaps Rove is a better tactician or strategist but I have yet to see any congressional race where these talents are visibly helping a conservative candidate. Rove is resting on his laurels and protecting the establishment.
Something else to consider which many Palin critics seem to overlook, which tells me how shallow their knowledge of political dynamics is. Governor Palin can motivate and if anyone that has any political or just life experience knows, it is that motivation will trump tactics and strategies every time!!!
Is there a license required for “master political tactician”? A degree? An official appointment?
Sarah doesn't need a “title”. She is upsetting the “status quo” of politics as we knew it. The old “rules” don't apply anymore. They sure don't apply to Sarah Palin. Don't tell me what she can or can't do, what she is or isn't, just because she doesn't fit the political template of the past.
It's a new day in America, a Conservative day. We are taking our country back. Get on board or get out of the way.
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