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To: krb
I agree that NC-4 is gerrymandered, if subtly so. Beyond question, the district is "purpose-drawn."

In North Carolina, redistricting is done my the General Assembly (State Senate and State House); the Governor does not have a veto on redistricting matters (this is significant because there is a chance that the Republicans could take one or both houses of the General Assembly next week). I don't complain too much about the Dems' gerrymandering, because if the GOP controls the process, their district lines will be just as creative.

Whichever party (or parties; it could be a split decision) controls the redistricting process, they'll have to answer to judges appointed to enforce the provisions of the Voting Right Act of 1965. Specifically, two "minority" districts (currently Districts 1 and 12) will have to be preserved. If the GOP controls the process, their obvious strategy will be to make the black districts even blacker, and likely even more attenuated, causing the adjacent districts to be marginally more Republican.

Here's a look at the current Congressional Districts statewide:

.

As krb noted, Raleigh's mostly Republican suburbs were carefully carved up to minimize their influence. Western Wake County, including Cary and Apex, is strongly Republican; as a part of NC-4, it was attached to strongly Democratic Durham County (a large, politically active black community, plus blue-collar whites, plus Duke University), and notoriously liberal Orange County (home of my beloved but leftish alma mater, UNC). Historically, Durham and Orange have provided more than enough Dem votes for Price to overcome Republican Western Wake. But might the Dems have stretched things a little thin? With Obama not on the ballot, will the turnout of blacks in Durham and the vegetarian Birkenstockers in Chapel Hill fall off? Hasn't Western Wake grown rapidly, and filled in with more Republicans since the district lines were last drawn in 2001? Stay tuned.

A big chunk of northern and eastern Wake County (Wake Forest, Zebulon, and -- who could forget? -- Lizard Lick), also mostly white and Republican, is attached to a string of mostly rural, heavily black counties across the northern tier to form NC-13. So, eastern Wake's Republican vote is overpowered.

And finally, central and southeastern Raleigh, mostly black and heavily Dem, is attached to Etheridge's elaborately drawn NC-2, serving to (so the Dems hope, and it has been the case so far) cancel out the growing GOP vote in suburbanizing Johnston and Harnett Counties.

It will be interesting to watch on election night, and should the Republicans prevail in the State Senate and/or State House (obviously, they'll have to overcome the gerrymandered nature of their own districts, but that's a whole 'nother story), the redistricting process will be fascinating.

20 posted on 10/28/2010 6:31:45 AM PDT by southernnorthcarolina ("Better be wise by the misfortunes of others than by your own." -- Aesop)
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To: southernnorthcarolina

Very good run down. IIRC, the General Assembly is currently 30-20 D for the Senate and 68-52 D for the House. If that could turn, it would make a huge difference come redistricting time.

Wake Co currently has a population of 900K, and a Congressional District was 696,952 in 2000. Don’t know what it will be for 2010. So Wake would have to get carved up no matter what. The CSA (Combined Statistical Area) of Raleigh, Durham, Cary is about 1.7 million, almost 3 CD’s and has grown rapidly in the past 10 years. Whoever gets to carve it up will do it to help their party.

Good luck on Tuesday


21 posted on 10/28/2010 7:48:52 AM PDT by centurion316
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To: southernnorthcarolina

SNC, that’s fantastic information. I never knew that was why Wake County was split three ways, but knowing that the General Assembly here is Democrat, it makes perfect political sense.

I still think Price pulls it out here in the Fourth, but it’s going to be close. He won’t have that Durham black racist Democrat wave from 2008 to ride, and I’m not sure how enthused the granola crowd next door in Orange is right now. It’s going to come down to southwestern Wake and northern Chatham to pull this out for us. Let’s hope there haven’t been too many liberal Yankees moving into Apex/Cary/Fuquay-Varina the past few years!

If Lawson pulls this out, people around here in Durham, even in my heavily liberal neighborhood (Tuscaloosa-Lakewood, west central Durham) are going to lose their minds. And I, for one, will be ecstatic.

}:-)4


22 posted on 10/28/2010 7:53:05 AM PDT by Moose4 ("By all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!")
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To: southernnorthcarolina

I was going through old posts, and had to respond to yours...

I’m a native North Carolinian.
I cut my political teeth working for Reagan.

I’m a vegetarian. Get away from talk radio. It’s stultifying your thinking.


25 posted on 10/28/2010 10:44:56 AM PDT by warchild9
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