Posted on 10/27/2010 9:11:05 AM PDT by GonzoII
Republicans are positioned to gain as many as 60 seats, possibly more, from a Democratic Party that seems in free fall just one week from Election Day, according to the Cook Political Report.
The report's pre-election House outlook is a Democratic net loss of 48 to 60 seats, with higher losses possible. Though a turnover of just 39 seats would tip majority status into Republican hands, according to the Report, “the midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified.”
The report points out that, although only a third of Democratic Senate seats are up for election, House Democrats are suffering the full extent of the anger over growing unemployment, huge federal deficits and controversial spending programs like the economic stimulus and Obamacare.
More than 25 percent of the 255-member House Democratic caucus are trailing their GOP opponents in at least one public or private survey. Worse yet for the Democrats — nearly half have tested under 50 percent of the vote in at least one poll. NBC News, using the report’s research, recently suggested that as many as 100 Democratic seats are in play.
But only 190 House seats are “Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic,” according to the Report. Another 198 seats are “Solid, Likely or Lean Republican.” Nearly 50 seats are in the tossup column.
...snip
Other respected political analysts are coming to similar conclusions. RealClearPolitics now projects 149 seats are in play, with just 123 “safe” Democratic wins and 163 “safe” Republican wins. Adding up the totals and including “leaning” or “likely”GOP wins, the GOP should take the house with at least 223 seats. With tossups, the number of GOP seats in the next Congress would likely be around 244 seats.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
This is the time in the election cycle when pundits earn their money. They now have critical polls in hand, especially in districts that have been overlooked to date, and they are looking carefully at all the other intangible indicators. Their final predictions are what get recorded on the score sheet, and nobody wants to be caught with their pants down. Expect the R numbers to continue to go up in the House, probably in the 50-75 range. The Senate is a tougher call. Republicans could easily wind up with 52, but it could just as easily slip to 48 given the tendency of the dead to acquire a hankering to vote around this time of year.
This is where I throw up my hands. Reading the Cook report from yesterday, it sounds pretty darn good. But if you go to Townhall, there is an article in which the author interviews Cook who says that the wave has crested for the Republicans because the Democrats finally found a successful tactic of personally attacking teaparty candidates. As a result of that , Republican will not do as well as he once thought.
Which is it? Sixty seats or more and maybe the Senate, or a typical off-year election? And this is the same Guy, Cook, speaking in two different places!
The “tea party” attack will not really effect house races. House races will be caught in the wave. The peoples house. Senators and Governors are more personal. Senators are the “
“Ambassadors” of the state. Thus, people want someone they like and feel comfortable to represent their state. If you attack a Senate candidate to make residents uncomfortable with them representing them much more effect then a congressmen.
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