Redistricting Fight Starts Nov. 2 (Florida Gov. race is pivotal)

Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott stands with running mate Jennifer Carroll at a campaign stop Tuesday in New Port Richey, Fla.... View Enlarged Image Republicans are poised to retake control of the House after the midterm elections. Big state-level gains should bolster their chances of winning and holding more seats in the coming years.

Population trends should give more House seats and electoral votes to "red" states at the expense of typically "blue" states. Additionally, Republicans will get a boost in redistricting battles next year from expected big gains in statehouses and governorships.

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Nevertheless, there are many mitigating factors that could limit the GOP’s gains.

Final census estimates, on which reapportionment depends, won’t be finished until year-end.

Estimates provided by the firm Election Data Services show Texas gaining an additional four House seats. Florida will gain two seats, while Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington will gain one each.

States likely to lose one seat are Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. New York and Ohio could each lose two.

Red States Get Bigger

Washington is the only state poised to gain a seat that usually votes Democratic. Louisiana is the lone “red” state likely to lose a seat.

“It is somewhat of a trend from bluer states to redder states,” said Kim Brace, president of Election Data Services. “But it’s more a trend from the Northeast and Upper Midwest to the South and West. That’s where the population movement has been since World War II.”

Democrats hold 26 governorships vs. 24 for Republicans. Election analysts generally predict the GOP will pick up 6-8 governorships.

“A lot of those House seats seem to be going to states where Republicans are likely to control the process,” said professor Keith Gaddie, a redistricting expert at the University of Oklahoma. “But that’s not as certain as we thought it was.”

Texas Republicans currently control the governor’s mansion and statehouse.

Recent polls show Gov. Rick Perry solidifying his lead over strong Democratic challenger Bill White. In Florida, the GOP controls the legislature but may lose the governorship. Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink are neck-and-neck.

Of the states projected to lose House seats, six have state legislatures controlled by Democrats.

But the parties split control of the legislatures in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The GOP has a solid chance of regaining full legislative control in Ohio and Michigan — and Republican gubernatorial candidates are currently leading in both states.

“When you have a governor of one party and a legislature of the other party, the gains or losses are more likely to get shared,” Gaddie said. “If they can’t make a deal, it goes to litigation that can cost the state millions.”

Texas’ population has grown by nearly 4 million over the past decade, but most of that has been among Hispanics. Hispanics tend to vote Democratic, and Gaddie suggests that one or two of the likely new Texas districts may have heavy concentrations of Hispanics.

Finally, ballot initiatives that seek to strip politicians of their redistricting power could also play a role.

No More Gerrymanders?

California voters will decide on Proposition 20, which would let a citizen commission — created in 2008 to determine state legislative seats — draw up congressional districts. Though the Golden State is not projected to gain or lose House seats, the panel could put in play more of the 53 seats — which now almost never switch hands, due to gerrymandering.

“The current process for doing redistricting is America’s best kept dirty little secret,” said Gerry Hebert, program director at Americans for Redistricting Reform. “Politicians use the process to choose the voters they want in their district. That leads to fewer competitive districts.”

However, state Democrats are promoting Proposition 27, which would eliminate the panel entirely.

Democratic groups are taking a different stance in Florida, hoping Amendment 6 will produce more Democratic seats. It would let state courts reject any redistricting plan designed by state legislators “with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or incumbent.”

A few states already have panels that draw congressional districts, but most still let governors and state legislatures alter the plans.

“The state legislature, on its own, is unlikely to give up the redistricting power,” Hebert said.

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