Posted on 10/26/2010 7:59:31 AM PDT by freespirited
The new Fox News poll of the West Virginia Senate race has Republican businessman John Raese holding on to a narrow lead against Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin.
The numbers: Raese 48%, Manchin 46%. The survey of likely voters has a ±3% margin of error. In the previous Fox poll from last week, Raese led by a similar 48%-45%.
This race has been neck and neck, as two factors compete against each other: Manchin's profile as a relatively conservative Democrat and his very high approval rating as governor, at 69% in this particular poll, compared to President Obama's similarly high disapproval in this state, which is at 65% in this survey.
The TPM Poll Average currently gives Manchin an edge of just 46.7%-46.5%.
I don’t know what to believe anymore.
Polls should help you analyze where races are, not determine your behavior or attitude. Do not emotionally depend on polls for how you feel about a race. Talk like we are ahead, work like we are behind. Encourage and be positive, it makes the other side depressed.
It all comes down to turnout.
No poll is determining my attitude or behavior. I will be working the phones Wednesday and Thursday evenings. Just like I did last week for Anna Little (R), the congressional candidate running against Frank Pallone (D) here in NJ.
I just made the comment because last night a poll said that Manchin was way up and the newsie seemed pleased. It was “Shemp” Smith on FNC, I can’t stand him. :)
This is a Rasmussen poll and it is exactly as I expected. The PPP sample skewed to the Democrats by 7% over 2008. That just isn’t happening. Raese has to do one thing to win this and that is to run a “Promise” ad touting his commitment to WV. Also he needs to run an ad to neutralize Manchins negative attacks on his wealth. Manchin a millionaire is portraying Raese like a big whig and himself like a man of the people.
I believe Raese will win but it will be narrower than I would’ve liked. Raese has the big guns coming in for him.
So we can thank the treacherous NRA if Manchin wins this very close race and wreaks havoc in the lame duck session.
The NRA is worse than the rinos!
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