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Here is the list of the seats most likely to switch, based on the pundit average. In the event of a tie, my computer rating of the seat breaks the tie.
Rank | 2010 Incumbent | District | GOP Candidate |
1 | Gordon | TN6 | Dianne Black |
2 | Melancon | LA3 | TBD |
3 | Snyder | AR2 | Tim Griffin |
4 | Massa | NY29 | Tom Reed (likely) |
5 | Kratovil | MD1 | TBD |
6 | Kilroy | OH15 | Steve Stivers |
7 | Teague | NM2 | Steve Pearce |
8 | Driehaus | OH1 | Steve Chabot |
9 | Moore, D. | KS3 | Kevin Yoder |
10 | Ellsworth | IN8 | Larry Bucshon |
11 | Markey | CO4 | Cory Gardner |
12 | Shea-Porter | NH1 | TBD |
13 | Hodes | NH2 | TBD |
14 | Pomeroy | NDAL | Richard Berg |
15 | Tanner | TN8 | Stephen Fincher |
16 | Kosmas | FL24 | TBD |
17 | Childers | MS1 | Alan Nunnelee |
18 | Titus | NV3 | Joe Heck |
19 | Perriello | VA5 | Robert Hurt |
20 | Nye | VA2 | Scott Rigell |
21 | Grayson | FL8 | TBD |
22 | Stupak | MI1 | Dan Benishek |
23 | Arcuri | NY24 | Richard Hanna |
24 | Kanjorski | PA11 | Lou Barletta |
25 | Mollohan | WV1 | David McKinley |
26 | Schauer | MI7 | Tim Walberg |
27 | Baird | WA3 | TBD |
28 | Sestak | PA7 | Pat Meehan |
29 | Foster | IL14 | Randy Hultgren |
30 | Edwards, C. | TX17 | Bill Flores |
31 | Berry | AR1 | Rick Crawford |
32 | Bright | AL2 | Martha Roby |
33 | Hill | IN9 | Todd Young |
34 | Minnick | ID1 | Raul Labrador |
35 | Spratt | SC5 | Mick Mulvaney |
36 | Dahlkemper | PA3 | Mike Kelly |
37 | Obey | WI7 | Sean Duffy (likely) |
38 | Kissell | NC8 | Harold Johnson |
39 | Herseth Sandlin | SDAL | Kristi Noem |
40 | Boyd | FL2 | TBD |
41 | Kirkpatrick | AZ1 | TBD |
42 | Boccieri | OH16 | Jim Renacci |
43 | Giffords | AZ8 | TBD |
44 | Halvorson | IL11 | Adam Kinzinger |
45 | McNerney | CA11 | David Harmer |
46 | Hall, J. | NY19 | Nan Hayworth (likely) |
47 | Adler | NJ3 | Jon Runyon |
48 | Murphy, P. | PA8 | Michael Fitzpatrick |
49 | Boucher | VA9 | Morgan Griffith |
50 | Space | OH18 | Bob Gibbs |
51 | Donnelly | IN2 | Jackie Walorski Swihart |
52 | Mitchell | AZ5 | TBD |
53 | Heinrich | NM1 | Johnathan L. Barela |
54 | Boswell | IA3 | Brad Zaun |
55 | Owens | NY23 | TBD |
56 | Bishop | NY1 | TBD |
57 | Critz | PA12 | Tim Burns |
58 | Delahunt | MA10 | TBD |
59 | Skelton | MO4 | Vicky Hartzler |
60 | Carney | PA10 | Thomas Marino |
61 | Connolly | VA11 | Keith Fimian |
62 | Kagen | WI8 | TBD |
63 | Salazar | CO3 | Scott Tipton |
64 | Murphy | NY20 | Chris Gibson |
65 | Sutton | OH13 | Tom Ganley |
66 | Marshall | GA8 | Austin Scott |
67 | Chandler | KY6 | Andy Barr |
68 | McMahon | NY13 | TBD |
69 | Schrader | OR5 | Scott Bruun |
70 | Klein | FL22 | Allen West (likely) |
71 | Rodriguez, C. | TX23 | Quico Canseco |
72 | Peters | MI9 | Rocky Raczkowski |
73 | Shuler | NC11 | Jeff Miller |
74 | Holden | PA17 | Dave Argall |
75 | Altmire | PA4 | Keith Rothfus |
76 | Murphy, C. | CT5 | Sam Caliguri |
77 | Kind | WI3 | TBD |
78 | Pallone Jr. | NJ6 | Anna Little |
79 | Davis, L. | TN4 | Scott DesJarlais |
80 | Himes | CT4 | Dan Debicella |
81 | Walz | MN1 | Randy Demmer |
82 | Maffei | NY25 | Ann Marie Buerkle |
83 | Sanchez, Loretta | CA47 | Van Tran |
84 | Rahall | WV3 | Elliot "Spike" Maynard |
85 | Bean | IL8 | Joe Walsh |
86 | Etheridge | NC2 | Renee Ellmers |
87 | Cardoza | CA18 | Michael Berryhill |
88 | Yarmuth | KY3 | Todd Lally |
89 | Larsen | WA2 | John Koster |
90 | Loebsack | IA2 | Marianette Miller-Meeks |
91 | Barrow | GA12 | Ray McKinney |
92 | Matheson | UT2 | Morgan Philpot |
93 | Ross | AR4 | Beth Anne Rankin |
94 | McIntyre | NC7 | Ilario Pantano |
95 | Wilson, C. | OH6 | Bill Johnson |
96 | Bishop, S. | GA2 | Mike Keown |
97 | Perlmutter | CO7 | Ryan Frazier |
98 | Hare | IL17 | Bobby Schilling |
99 | Costa | CA20 | Andy Vidak |
100 | Braley | IA1 | Benjamin Lange |
101 | Holt | NJ12 | Scott Sipprelle |
102 | Wu | OR1 | Rob Cornilles |
103 | Carnahan | MO3 | Ed Martin |
Mine is #17. Got to make Cousin Travis a blip from the past!
Thank you, thank you, thank you!
I see they are neatly arranged in numerical order.
I wonder if anyone thought to arrange them by state? Naw, that would be to easy to find your own gy.
Also I heard somewhere and I can't remember where that John Dingle was in trouble in Michigan.
This is all well and good,But it is over 2 Months till the election. We have to stay focused and keep working like we are 10 points down.
FYI
100+ seats for Republicans is freaking dreaming. SC05 — John Spratt’s seat ain’t happening. I imagine the Club For Growth is similarly overly optimistic on at least 2/3rd’s of these seats.
While the electorate is very dissatisfied with Obama and the Democrats, they STILL don’t trust Republicans (with good reason) and most of the Republicans have given them NO good, POSITIVE reasons to vote FOR them this November. They are just hoping that they are the only alternative and that the Democrats destroying themselves is “enough.”
WHAT, pray tell, are the Republicans OFFERING? Where is their CONSERVATIVE agenda?! Where is “Reaganism?” Or a new “Contract with America?” Where’s the evidence that their Conservative convictions will last more than 100 days, and they won’t just become “Democrats lite?”
Republicans may pick up 30-38 seats in the house and 6-7 in the Senate — but they won’t get Congress back. But it’s nice to dream Club for Growth....
Add Kucinich to the list. He’s toast!