Posted on 08/14/2010 9:28:44 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
This weeks news:
Current Republican Net Pickup Projections:
STILL SHORT OF THE 39-40 NEEDED FOR A REPUBLICAN MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE - BUT THE NUMBERS KEEP EDGING UP
We have made major improvements to the KeyHouseRaces.com Home Page - our 1-Stop-Shopping Page for the Races on our Master List.
We have primary winners in CO-03, CO-04, CT-04, CT-05, MN-01 and MN-06. No really big surprises.
In MI-01 Dr. Dan Benishek has won the recount with a 15 vote margin over Jason Allen. But since Allen has a few more hours to ask for another recount we cannot call the race for Dr. Dan.
The Master List has been updated to include all the winners with exception of the MI-01 Republican. The "Race at a Glance" entries on the Home Page have also been updated to include the CO, CT and MN districts.
There were a fair number of changes to the Experts Ratings this week - 1 from CQPolitics, 8 from Election Projection, 3 from Cook and 1 from RCP. The last update we have from Sabato was July 8th (come on Larry - get with it). Rothenberg is also overdue - his last update was July 19th. The good news for Rothenberg is that he has a very nice new format for his ratings. A big improvement.
Here's the summary of the changes to our Experts' ratings:
Those changes moved our index to -.289 from last weeks -.301. So the Trend is Still Our Friend - the "Experts" keep revising their projections to be more favorable to the Republicans.
Note that you can always see the latest changes and the current state of the "Expert" evaluations of all of the races on our Master List and an explanation of our methodology on the KeyHouseRaces Experts Page.
Just a reminder: Here is the schedule for the remaining August Primaries:
August 17: Washington and Wyoming
August 24: Alaska, Arizona, Florida and Vermont
August 28: Louisiana
| # | District | Dem Primary Winner | Incumbent or Open |
Republican Incumbent or Challengers | ALL | Primary | Experts | District | # | |||||
| Or Incumbent | Main Challenger | Challenger | Challenger | |||||||||||
| 1 | OH | 2 | Surya Yalamanchili | Incumbent R | Jean Schmidt | OH | 4-May | Safe R | OH | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | FL | 12 | Dem Primary | Open R | Dennis Ross | Randy Wilkinson | John Lindsey Jr. | FL | 24-Aug | Likely R | FL | 12 | 2 | |
| 3 | MN | 6 | Tarryl Clark | Incumbent R | Michele Bachmann | MN | 10-Aug | Likely R | MN | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | TN | 6 | Brett Carter | Open D | Diane Black | TN | 5-Aug | Likely R | TN | 6 | 4 | |||
| 5 | NE | 2 | Tom White | Incumbent R | Lee Terry | NE | 11-May | Likely R | NE | 2 | 5 | |||
| 6 | AR | 2 | Joyce Elliott | Open D | Tim Griffin | AR | 18-May | Likely R | AR | 2 | 6 | |||
| 7 | LA | 3 | Open D (Melancon) | Open D | Hunt Downer | Jeff Landry | Kristian Magar | LA | 28-Aug | Likely R | LA | 3 | 7 | |
| 8 | PA | 6 | Manan Trivedi | Incumbent R | Jim Gerlach | PA | 18-May | Likely R | PA | 6 | 8 | |||
| 9 | CA | 3 | Ami Bera | Incumbent R | Dan Lungren | CA | 8-Jun | Leans R | CA | 3 | 9 | |||
| 10 | NY | 29 | Open D (Massa) | Open D | Tom Reed | Angelo Campini | George Winner | NY | 14-Sep | Leans R | NY | 29 | 10 | |
| 11 | WA | 8 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Dave Reichert | WA | 17-Aug | Leans R | WA | 8 | 11 | |||
| 12 | FL | 25 | Dem Primary | Open R | David Rivera | Paul Crespo | Marili Cancio (I) | FL | 24-Aug | Leans R | FL | 25 | 12 | |
| 13 | OH | 15 | Mary Jo Kilroy | Incumbent D | Steve Stivers | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 15 | 13 | |||
| 14 | CO | 4 | Betsy Markey | Incumbent D | Cory Gardner | CO | 10-Aug | Leans R | CO | 4 | 14 | |||
| 15 | KS | 3 | Stephene Moore | Open D | Kevin Yoder | KS | 3-Aug | Leans R | KS | 3 | 15 | |||
| 16 | MD | 1 | Frank Kratovil | Incumbent D | Andy Harris | Jeannie Haddoway-Riccio | Jeff Ghrist | MD | 14-Sep | Leans R | MD | 1 | 16 | |
| 17 | NM | 2 | Harry Teague | Incumbent D | Steve Pearce | NM | 1-Jun | Leans R | NM | 2 | 17 | |||
| 18 | OH | 1 | Steve Driehaus | Incumbent D | Steve Chabot | OH | 4-May | Leans R | OH | 1 | 18 | |||
| 19 | IN | 8 | W. Trent Van Haaften | Open D | Dr. Larry Bucshon | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 8 | 19 | |||
| 20 | MS | 1 | Travis Childers | Incumbent D | Alan Nunnelee | MS | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | MS | 1 | 20 | |||
| 21 | ND | AL | Earl Pomeroy | Incumbent D | Rick Berg | ND | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | ND | AL | 21 | |||
| 22 | NH | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | Incumbent D | Frank Guinta | Sean Mahoney | Rich Ashooh | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 1 | 22 | |
| 23 | NH | 2 | Open D (Paul Hodes) | Open D | Jennifer Horn | Charlie Bass | Bob Giuda | NH | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NH | 2 | 23 | |
| 24 | TN | 8 | Roy Herron | Open D | Stephen Fincher | TN | 5-Aug | Toss-Up | TN | 8 | 24 | |||
| 25 | VA | 5 | Tom Perriello | Incumbent D | Robert Hurt | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 5 | 25 | |||
| 26 | FL | 24 | Suzanne Kosmas | Incumbent D | Sandy Adams | Karen Deibel | Craig Miller | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 24 | 26 | |
| 27 | MI | 7 | Mark Schauer | Incumbent D | Tim Walberg | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 7 | 27 | |||
| 28 | NV | 3 | Dina Titus | Incumbent D | Dr. Joe Heck | NV | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | NV | 3 | 28 | |||
| 29 | PA | 7 | Bryan Lentz | Open D | Pat Meehan | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 7 | 29 | |||
| 30 | PA | 11 | Paul Kanjorski | Incumbent D | Lou Barletta | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 11 | 30 | |||
| 31 | FL | 8 | Alan Grayson | Incumbent D | Daniel Webster | Kurt Kelly | Bruce O’Donoghue | FL | 24-Aug | Toss-Up | FL | 8 | 31 | |
| 32 | IL | 10 | Dan Seals | Open R | Bob Dold | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 10 | 32 | |||
| 33 | MI | 1 | Gary McDowell | Open D | Dr. Daniel Benishek | Jason Allen | RECOUNT | MI | 3-Aug | Toss-Up | MI | 1 | 33 | |
| 34 | NY | 24 | Mike Arcuri | Incumbent D | Richard Hanna | NY | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | NY | 24 | 34 | |||
| 35 | TX | 17 | Chet Edwards | Incumbent D | Bill Flores | TX | 13-Apr | Toss-Up | TX | 17 | 35 | |||
| 36 | VA | 2 | Glenn Nye | Incumbent D | Scott Rigell | VA | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | VA | 2 | 36 | |||
| 37 | WA | 3 | Open D (Baird) | Open D | Jaime Herrera | David Castillo | David Hedrick | WA | 17-Aug | Toss-Up | WA | 3 | 37 | |
| 38 | WI | 7 | Open D (Obey) | Open D | Sean Duffy | Dan Mielke | WI | 14-Sep | Toss-Up | WI | 7 | 38 | ||
| 39 | AL | 2 | Bobby Bright | Incumbent D | Martha Roby | AL | 1-Jun | Toss-Up | AL | 2 | 39 | |||
| 40 | AR | 1 | Chad Causey | Open D | Rick Crawford | AR | 18-May | Toss-Up | AR | 1 | 40 | |||
| 41 | IL | 11 | Debbie Halvorson | Incumbent D | Adam Kinzinger | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 11 | 41 | |||
| 42 | IL | 14 | Bill Foster | Incumbent D | Randy Hultgren | IL | 2-Feb | Toss-Up | IL | 14 | 42 | |||
| 43 | SD | AL | Stephanie Sandlin | Incumbent D | Kristi Noem | SD | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | SD | AL | 43 | |||
| 44 | HI | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | Incumbent R | Charles Djou | HI | 18-Sep | Toss-Up | HI | 1 | 44 | |||
| 45 | PA | 3 | Kathleen Dahlkemper | Incumbent D | Mike Kelly | PA | 18-May | Toss-Up | PA | 3 | 45 | |||
| 46 | WV | 1 | Mike Oliverio | Open D | David B. McKinley | WV | 11-May | Toss-Up | WV | 1 | 46 | |||
| 47 | IN | 9 | Baron Hill | Incumbent D | Todd Young | IN | 4-May | Toss-Up | IN | 9 | 47 | |||
| 48 | NC | 8 | Larry Kissell | Incumbent D | Harold Johnson | NC | 4-May | Toss-Up | NC | 8 | 48 | |||
| 49 | OH | 16 | John Boccieri | Incumbent D | Jim Renacci | OH | 4-May | Toss-Up | OH | 16 | 49 | |||
| 50 | SC | 5 | John Spratt Jr. | Incumbent D | Mick Mulvaney | SC | 8-Jun | Toss-Up | SC | 5 | 50 | |||
| 51 | AZ | 8 | Gabrielle Giffords | Incumbent D | Jonathan Paton | Jesse Kelly | Brian Miller | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 8 | 51 | |
| 52 | FL | 2 | Allen Boyd | Incumbent D | Eddie Hendry | David Scholl | Steve Southerland | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 2 | 52 | |
| 53 | IA | 3 | Leonard Boswell | Incumbent D | Brad Zaun | IA | 8-Jun | Leans D | IA | 3 | 53 | |||
| 54 | MA | 10 | Open D (Delahunt) | Open D | Jeff Perry | Joe Malone | Ray Kasperowicz | MA | 14-Sep | Leans D | MA | 10 | 54 | |
| 55 | AZ | 5 | Harold Mitchell | Incumbent D | David Schweikert | Susan Bitter Smith | Dr. Chris Salvino | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 5 | 55 | |
| 56 | CA | 11 | Jerry McNerney | Incumbent D | David Harmer | CA | 8-Jun | Leans D | CA | 11 | 56 | |||
| 57 | ID | 1 | Walter Minnick | Incumbent D | Raul Labrador | ID | 25-May | Leans D | ID | 1 | 57 | |||
| 58 | NY | 19 | John Hall | Incumbent D | Nan Hayworth | Thomas DeChiaro | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 19 | 58 | ||
| 59 | OH | 18 | Zach Space | Incumbent D | Bob Gibbs | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 18 | 59 | |||
| 60 | VA | 9 | Rick Boucher | Incumbent D | Morgan Griffith | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 9 | 60 | |||
| 61 | PA | 12 | Mark Critz | Incumbent D | Timothy Burns | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 12 | 61 | |||
| 62 | AZ | 1 | Ann Kirkpatrick | Incumbent D | Rusty Bowers | Bradley Beauchamp | Paul Gosar | AZ | 24-Aug | Leans D | AZ | 1 | 62 | |
| 63 | DE | AL | Dem Primary | Open R | Glen Urquhart | Michele Rollins | Rose Izzo | DE | 14-Sep | Leans D | DE | AL | 63 | |
| 64 | MO | 4 | Ike Skelton | Incumbent D | Vicky Hartzler | MO | 3-Aug | Leans D | MO | 4 | 64 | |||
| 65 | NJ | 3 | John Adler | Incumbent D | Jon Runyan | NJ | 8-Jun | Leans D | NJ | 3 | 65 | |||
| 66 | NM | 1 | Martin Heinrich | Incumbent D | Jon Barela | NM | 1-Jun | Leans D | NM | 1 | 66 | |||
| 67 | NY | 1 | Tim Bishop | Incumbent D | Randy Altschuler | George Demos | Chris Cox | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 1 | 67 | |
| 68 | NY | 23 | Bill Owens | Incumbent D | Doug Hoffman | Matt Doheny | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 23 | 68 | ||
| 69 | PA | 8 | Patrick Murphy | Incumbent D | Mike Fitzpatrick | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 8 | 69 | |||
| 70 | VA | 11 | Gerald Connolly | Incumbent D | Keith Fimian | VA | 8-Jun | Leans D | VA | 11 | 70 | |||
| 71 | CO | 3 | John Salazar | Incumbent D | Scott Tipton | CO | 10-Aug | Leans D | CO | 3 | 71 | |||
| 72 | IN | 2 | Joe Donnelly | Incumbent D | Jackie Walorski | IN | 4-May | Leans D | IN | 2 | 72 | |||
| 73 | KY | 6 | Ben Chandler | Incumbent D | Andy Barr | KY | 8-May | Leans D | KY | 6 | 73 | |||
| 74 | LA | 2 | Dem Primary | Incumbent R | Joseph Cao | LA | 28-Aug | Leans D | LA | 2 | 74 | |||
| 75 | NY | 20 | Scott Murphy | Incumbent D | Chris Gibson | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 20 | 75 | |||
| 76 | OH | 13 | Betty Sutton | Incumbent D | Tom Ganley | OH | 4-May | Leans D | OH | 13 | 76 | |||
| 77 | PA | 10 | Chris Carney | Incumbent D | Tom Marino | PA | 18-May | Leans D | PA | 10 | 77 | |||
| 78 | WI | 8 | Steve Kagen | Incumbent D | Terri McCormick | Roger Roth | WI | 14-Sep | Leans D | WI | 8 | 78 | ||
| 79 | FL | 22 | Ron Klein | Incumbent D | Allen West | FL | 24-Aug | Leans D | FL | 22 | 79 | |||
| 80 | NY | 13 | Mike McMahon | Incumbent D | Mike Grimm | Michael Allegretti | NY | 14-Sep | Leans D | NY | 13 | 80 | ||
| 81 | OR | 5 | Kurt Schrader | Incumbent D | Scott Bruun | OR | 18-May | Likely D | 81 | |||||
| 82 | TX | 23 | Ciro Rodriguez | Incumbent D | Francisco "Quico" Canseco | TX | 13-Apr | Likely D | TX | 23 | 82 | |||
| 83 | CT | 4 | Jim Himes | Incumbent D | Dan Debicella | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 4 | 83 | |||
| 84 | CT | 5 | Christopher Murphy | Incumbent D | Sam Caligiuri | CT | 10-Aug | Likely D | CT | 5 | 84 | |||
| 85 | IL | 8 | Melissa Bean | Incumbent D | Joe Walsh | IL | 2-Feb | Likely D | IL | 8 | 85 | |||
| 86 | MI | 9 | Gary Peters | Incumbent D | "Rocky" Raczowski | MI | 3-Aug | Likely D | MI | 9 | 86 | |||
| 87 | PA | 4 | Jason Altmire | Incumbent D | Keith Rothfus | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 4 | 87 | |||
| 88 | PA | 17 | Tim Holden | Incumbent D | David Argall | PA | 18-May | Likely D | PA | 17 | 88 | |||
| 89 | GA | 8 | Jim Marshall | Incumbent D | Austin Scott | GA | 20-Jul | Likely D | GA | 8 | 89 | |||
| 90 | TN | 4 | Lincoln Davis | Incumbent D | Dr. Scott Desjarlais | TN | 5-Aug | Likely D | TN | 4 | 90 | |||
| 91 | MN | 1 | Tim Walz | Incumbent D | Randy Demmer | MN | 14-Sep | Likely D | MN | 1 | 91 | |||
| 92 | NY | 25 | Dan Maffei | Incumbent D | Ann Marie Buerkle | NY | 14-Sep | Likely D | NY | 25 | 92 | |||
| 93 | CA | 47 | Loretta Sanchez | Incumbent D | Van Tran | CA | 8-Jun | Likely D | CA | 47 | 93 | |||
| Code | Color Code Indicates | |||||||||||||
| New Entry or Major Change | Average Expert’s Rating of the Master List | -0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Upcoming Primary or Runoff | ||||||||||||||
| Republican Primary Winner - Completed Primary | ||||||||||||||
| Republican Open Seat or Contested Seat | ||||||||||||||
| Open Dem Seat | ||||||||||||||
| Updated | 14-Aug-10 | |||||||||||||
| Rating and Color Code | Average Expert | |||||||||||||
| From | To | |||||||||||||
| Safe D | -3 | -2.5 | ||||||||||||
| Likely D | -2.5 | -1.5 | ||||||||||||
| Leans D | -1.5 | -0.5 | ||||||||||||
| Toss-Up | -0.5 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Toss-Up | 0 | 0.5 | ||||||||||||
| Leans R | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||
| Likely R | 1.5 | 2.5 | ||||||||||||
| Safe R | 2.5 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||
Thanks for the ping!
Phil Gingrey, who has the GA region west of Marietta GA (away from Atlanta and the very “blue” Symrna and such areas inside the 285 perimeter), is in my local church. Seems confident, is expected to win.
Will we get rid of the idiots representing Atlanta itself for too long? Unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. 30,000 stood inline this week to get applications to get on the list to get free section 8 housing. That had no openings for those already on the list for free housing.
Thanks for the headsup-—great work, as usual.
Please remove me.
Ugh, I can’t believe NY 23 is leaning D. What the hell...
How in the world can “D” incumbents be considered favorites in races where the economy has truly tanked and unemployment is insanely high? Are the voters in those districts really that stupid? IF so, then maybe the deserve what they get!
BTTT
Ugh, I can’t believe NY 23 is leaning D. What the hell...
my beef with politicians is that they don't smell the coffee when the pot is right in front of them......they don't see that maybe they should step aside....
but its all about egos...
That’s great news about Phil Gingery!
good work...
word here in NY is most expect Hayworth (NY19) to take the seat- Hall is brain dead, the district is conservative and he can’t run on the anti-Bush campaign that got him elected the past two elections, despite his attempts...
many think Acuri, NY24, is also going down...
OK.
? We’re not to the point of getting the House yet?
Disgusting.
I agree, Doug Hoffman should win going away.
IP:
Thank you very much for the ping.
You keep improving the site weekly. Pretty soon the experts and the Rnc will be refering to you!
In the opening comments, you talk about the “Experts” picks..I think, for lots of reasons, it’s very hard for them to come out and state the obvious..so you’ll see lots of hedging..I wonde who will be the first to state unequivocally that the HOuse goes GOP..
They do. Unfortunately, the rest of us get them too.
Many of the huddled masses in high misery index locales believe the promise of bread and circuses (two years of full unemployment giving more of them incentive to hold on to the dream) and between them and the other dependent class - government workers - they tip the scale.
So there you have it. Until the unsustainability of government stimulus punches here and now in the nose, there will be those holdouts. It is coming, but the longer it takes the uglier it is going to be.
GOP takes the House, does Pelosi resign her seat? Does she even take the seat in January? Hastert bailed after the GOP lost the House, and Newt quit when they lost 5 seats, though they still helt the majority. I think she retires..she's not gonna be minority leader..
Now, I can't be the first person to have asked this question, so I wonder if there's any action/maneuvering/positioning among SF Dems who might want to run for her seat
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