Among pollsters, how would you or anyone rank Rasmussen in terms of accuracy ?
When we like his poll he is the best, and when we don’t he sucks:). Since 2004 he has been great. When he first started he sucked. He had a learning curve. Now his polls are second best behind Survey USA for accuracy.
They were dead on the last 2 presidential elections.
Rasmussen uses a standardized system, so I think it increases the noise in his numbers. I believe he also uses likely voters more often than not, although I’m not sure that’s true in these daily tracking numbers.
Ras has been the most accurate pollster in the last few election cycles.
At least their election day polls, no one ever knows how accurate polls are 6 months to a year out... because there is no vote at those times.
The “most accurate”.
“Among pollsters, how would you or anyone rank Rasmussen in terms of accuracy ?”
The relative polling accuracy of Rasmussen.
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls (as reported on pollster.com).
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)