[InterceptPoint]

[BlessedBeGod]

Thanks for the update!

[InterceptPoint]

Another Ping. Freepmail me if you want on or off the Ping List.

[NoGrayZone]

Wow, first time I’ve seen the list. Please put me on your ping list, thank you!!! =)

[DontTreadOnMe2009]

WE WILL TAKE 100 SEATS

[InterceptPoint]

And another Ping. FreepMail me if you want on or off the Ping List.

[WhyisaTexasgirlinPA]

Nice list, thanks!

[nhwingut]

Come on South Dakota... Vote Kristi!!

[nhwingut]

NH-01 is a Lean R. No question.

Incumbent Carol Che-Porter is down in every poll.

Also, Sean Mahoney is running even with Guinta in GOP primary and he’s not listed. The other two you have listed (Ashooh, Bestani) are non factors.

[GailA]

Early voting started in TN on 7/16-31st. Weekdays starting on the 19th 10 am-7 pm, Sat 10 am-4 pm. You can vote at any of the early voting sites regardless of where you live. JUST be sure to double check your ballot for your candidate.

Conservative Charlotte Bergmann http://www.bergmannforcongress.com/ US 9th District (Steve Cohen is the current commie occupier of the seat)

[saganite]

I’m surprised to see the HI race listed as a tossup. I suspected Djou profited from the Dems infighting and would go down easily.

[OrangeHoof]

Looking at this, it is hard to imagine a sea change type of election like we saw in 1994. Perhaps the pollsters are undersampling the amount of anger out there or perhaps the “expert” predictions of taking over the House are overblown (so the media can then use the results as a repudiation of the Tea Party and an endorsement of Obama and his policies.

Hopefully, when September arrives and school is back and people are back from summer vacations (those that can afford them), conservatives can amp up the energy again. It’s hard to sustain anger for 18 months so some lulls can be expected but another push is going to need to come.

[Political Junkie Too]

Using the expert ratings above, the results of 32,000 simulated elections are listed in the table below. The definitions of the columns are:

• "GOP House Seats P10” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 10%.
• ”GOP House Seats EV” – the expected value (mean) or probability-weighted average of the simulation.
• ”GOP House Seats P90” – the value where the probability of the actual number being lower is 90%. Or, it is the value where the probability of the actual number being higher is 10%.
• ”Probability of 218” – The probability associated with value 218 (the House majority goal).
• ”GOP Gain” – The difference between the GOP EV and the current number of seats (179), rounded down.

Week	GOP House Seats P10	GOP House Seats EV	GOP House Seats P90	Probability of 218	GOP Gain
09-Apr-10	199	204.77	210	0.18%	25
16-Apr-10	199	205.09	211	0.22%	26
22-Apr-10	200	205.28	211	0.37%	26
01-May-10	201	206.22	212	0.73%	27
08-May-10	201	206.33	212	0.66%	27
19-Jun-10	203	208.44	214	2.29%	29
10-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.43%	29
17-Jul-10	203	208.49	214	2.34%	29

The cumulative probability distribution looks like this:

100%																					*
95%															*	*	*	*	*	*
90%														*
85%
80%													*
75%
70%
65%												*
60%
55%											*
50%
45%
40%										*
35%
30%
25%									*
20%
15%
10%								*
5%							*
0%	*	*	*	*	*	*
	191	193	195	196	198	200	202	204	205	207	209	211	213	214	216	218	220	222	223	225	227

-PJ

[Plutarch]

On list please!

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

Am I the only one here beginning to think that the best possible outcome might be what this analysis appears to indicate: the Dems retaining a very slight majority in both houses?

Here’s my rationale....even if the GOP gains control of one or even both houses, it won’t be able to enact any legislation with Obummer at the helm and slim majorities. By the same token, Zero will be neutered. With 48 or 49 in the senate and a solid 210 to 215, say, in the house, there’s no way he’s getting cap-and-tax or any of his other BS enacted.

Then in 2012 the GOP can campaign that the Dems have had Congress for 6 years and the White House for 4. If, as I expect, the economy is in even worse shape then, we could have a GOP tsunami that will make 1994 look like a mild tremor.

Hank

[Impy]

RE: Delaware

Moderate Michelle Rollins is the frontrunner, her main foe is the more conservative Glen Urquhart. http://www.glenurquhartforcongress.com/

Rose Izzo is an also ran.

[Michael.SF.]

California 47th Sanchez vs. Tran.

Van Tran has a real opportunity to take this one. The Vietnamese community is strong and getting stronger, he is well regarded by many and like so many Vietnamese who fled South Viet Nam when they could, he is a solid Conservative:

[grellis]

If you would like to be added or dropped from the Michigan ping list, please freepmail me.

Race updates

[Political Junkie Too]

For what it's worth, here is my analysis of the Senate races, based on the most recent Rasmussen polls.

Week	GOP Senate Seats P10	GOP Senate Seats EV	GOP Senate Seats P90	Probability of 51	GOP Gain
18-Jul-10	47	48.84	50	6.95%	7

-PJ

[HonestConservative]

When you click on the name Dave Argall for PA against Mark Crist, the link takes you to Frank Ryan’s site.

Unfortantely Col. Ryan lost to Mr. Argall for the nomination. You will want to remove the link and replace it with one that takes the reader to Argall’s site.

Nothing about Dave Argall is related to Frank Ryan’s site.